The New England Patriots own the AFC East. Even when they’re not marching all the way to a Super Bowl win, they can generally hang their hat on taking down their division crown.
Generally, as in pretty much every single year.
That’s not preseason hyperbole, either. New England has been annoyingly dominant inside the AFC East, safely securing first place in the division in each of the past nine years.
The lone hiccup? A 2008 run where Tom Brady was lost for the year due to a knee injury in week one.
New England could otherwise be looking at an absurd fifteen-year streak atop this cakewalk division.
Of course, 2018 brings another opportunity for the other teams inside the AFC East.
Is this destined to be another easy run for Bill Belichick and company, or can another team rise up the ranks?
I’m joined by Michael Wynn to take a look at each team inside the division to come away with the right answer.
All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from BetOnline on 6/27/2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.
New England Patriots
It’s only appropriate to start with the Pats, who Vegas understandably views as the chief threat to win Super Bowl 53.
New England has appeared in each of the last two NFL title games and figures to vie for another.
Here are their odds for 2018 over at BetOnline.
Super Bowl Winner+625
AFC Winner+275
AFC East Winner-550
Total Wins Over 10.5-200
Total Wins Under 10.5+175
A juggernaut of the league, the Pats are the top Super Bowl favorites, the favorite coming out of the AFC, the leader in their division, and expected to win 11 games.
If there is one team that usually requires little in-depth analysis, it’s the Pats. In fact, the only thing holding this team back is ongoing chatter of some type of schism up top.
Are the Pats really so fractured that I’m to believe they’re going to regress in 2018? I doubt it.
Tom Brady isn’t retiring, Rob Gronkowski is still here, and the shot-caller in the hoodie is still a mad man. New England needs to fix their defense, and losing Brandin Cooks might hurt, but like always, the Pats will figure it out.
They’re not a lock to win the title, but at +625, you’re getting some pretty stellar value. Their odds to come out of the conference are pretty nice as well.
Sadly, betting on the Over on their win total and/or another AFC East crown just doesn’t give you enough back.
I’m all for vouching for the Pats to get to or even win Super Bowl 53, but betting on them to win the AFC East (while they certainly will) just isn’t profitable.
I’m not nearly as concerned with the talk of a potential rift between Coach Belichick and Tom Terrific as some of you might be.
Quite frankly, I think the media has just become bored and angered with the Patriots’ utter dominance over the past 18 years and needs something to talk about.
Unfortunately for all of the Pats’ haters, it’s going to take a lot more than that to ruffle the feathers of that locker room. The organization runs like a well-oiled machine, and there is absolutely no reason to think that stops in 2018.
The only downside – as Noah already pointed out – is that Vegas isn’t doing us any favors. Having to lay -550 just to win the division seems like a lot, but it may actually be worth it.
Tom Brady is like a fine red wine, getting better and better as he has aged, while the rest of the division is in the process of rebuilding their franchises.
I don’t see many scenarios where New England doesn’t win at least 11 games, and in this division, that should be more than enough.
Perhaps the +625 to win the Super Bowl makes the most sense. I mean, Brady isn’t returning at age 41 for any other reason.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins weren’t a good football team a year ago, but much of their struggles stemmed from a preseason knee injury to quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
In some ways, it was borderline impressive how Miami finished 6-10 in a season tied to the regressing Jay Cutler.
Regardless, the top NFL sportsbooks are wondering if head coach Adam Gase got exposed and if Tannehill’s pending return is enough to keep the Fins competitive.
Super Bowl Winner+10000
AFC Winner+4000
AFC East Title+1200
Total Wins Over 5.5-240
Total Wins Under 5.5+200
The Dolphins are long shots to make a dent in the NFL at a high level in 2018, but I don’t know if I’d write them off completely.
The return of Tannehill should turn a pretty talented offense into a far more dynamic and explosive unit.
Tannehill isn’t alone, either, as Kenyan Drake, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, and others form a competent group that could be better than expected.
Can rookie defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick do enough to give Miami’s middling defense the shot in the arm it desperately needs? Not to win a title or the AFC East, but I do think this team will be better as a whole in 2018.
In the end, the only Dolphins wager I feel good about is the Over, but -240 is a bad price to chase.
I wish there was more to say here, but Mr. Davis hit the nail on the head.
Trying to compete in the NFL with Jay Cutler as your starting quarterback just isn’t going to work in 2018. It’s a good thing that Ryan Tannehill’s left knee has healed, and the Fins at least have some mobility at the quarterback position.
The Minkah Fitzpatrick pick was the one that all Miami fans were hoping for, so we just have to wait and see how it pans out. They’ll need to utilize the speed and quickness out of their skill positions on offense if they want to win some ball games, let alone even sniff the postseason.
I’m not sure I see a playoff berth in the cards for this team in 2018-2019, but they should be able to at least win 6 games like they did a year ago.
However, that -240 price is big enough to scare me away from putting my money where my mouth is. They have some nice pieces in place, but putting my faith in this team to go out and execute is another story.
Sorry, Adam Gase – you haven’t earned my trust yet!
Buffalo Bills
The Bills somehow made the playoffs for the first time since 1999, and their immediate response was to trade away their starting quarterback.
For better or worse, the Bills are starting over under center and still have the framework of a balanced offense and a solid defense. Will it be enough to keep them out of the AFC East cellar, though?
Super Bowl Winner+8000
AFC Winner+4000
AFC East Title+800
Total Wins Over 6.5+130
Total Wins Under 6.5-150
I am not a fan of the Bills this year at all. They ditched Tyrod Taylor to start over under center, while they simply do not have enticing weapons in the passing game.
Whether they start raw rookie Josh Allen or try to pretend A.J. McCarron is any good, this offense will ultimately be the LeSean McCoy show or bust.
Considering defenses will happily stack the box and force Buffalo to the air, that’s likely a recipe for disaster.
There is a core here to get excited about, but not for 2018. The Bills are terrible bets to make any real noise this coming season, and I’d bet hard on the Under (-150) when it comes to their win total.
The Buffalo Bills drafted University of Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen with the 7th pick but don’t seem ready to hand over the keys to the franchise just yet.
They brought in Bengals’ backup A.J. McCarron to help bridge the gap, but I’m not sure the former Crimson Tide QB is exactly who I’d want as my mentor.
Either way, the Bills have been staring up at the Pats in this division for a long time, and it looks like Buffalo fans are in for another year of the same.
LeSean McCoy will have celebrated his 30th birthday by the time preseason starts, and we all know how running backs fare once they hit 30.
Look for plenty of stacked boxes and lots of dink and dunk passing from this offense.
Their defense should be stout enough to keep them in most of their home games, but their ceiling won’t be very high. A 5-7 win season seems reasonable for this team, so I’m not touching the wagers.
New York Jets
Gang Green was surprisingly competent in 2017, as Josh McCown headed a passable offense that ultimately stayed within at least eight points in 11 of 16 games.
While a bit better than expected, New York still lacked explosiveness and tumbled to a shaky 5-11 mark.
With not enough positive change heading into 2018, it’s tough to expect better results.
Super Bowl Winner+10000
AFC Winner+4000
AFC East Title+1200
Total Wins Over 6.5+150
Total Wins Under 6.5-170
Josh McCown deserves brownie points for surviving this long, but he won’t last deep into the season, and eventually the Jets need to hand the offense over to rookie Sam Darnold.
That’s certainly something for Jets fans to get excited about, but when does starting a rookie passer lead to success? Not very often, while the Jets still lack proven threats at the offensive skill positions.
The one thing New York has going for them is that they play in this division, where they might have a chance to slap the Bills and Dolphins around a bit.
I don’t think you can even bank on that, so the Jets are a very real threat to once again struggle to get more than six wins.
While lots of Jets fans are stoked about the Sam Darnold pick, I have my reservations.
Do I need to remind you how past USC Trojan quarterbacks have fared once they got to the NFL? Because it hasn’t been pretty.
The combination of Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater is just a temporary hold until the franchise feels that Darnold is ready. But I’m afraid that this season might already be lost by the time that happens.
Honestly, I don’t think it matters which of the three quarterbacks play. This team isn’t going to be very good. They lack leadership.
Head Coach Todd Bowles will inevitably feel the pressure and the outside noise from the New York media, and they’ll have to plug Darnold in eventually. I’m not a fan of the situation in New York and wouldn’t be excited about their prospects.
They play the Patriots twice, and looking at their schedule, I don’t see a single road game in which they will be favored.
Take the -170. This team isn’t winning 7 games.
Summary
The AFC East Division is probably the one division where every single NFL analyst is picking the same team to win.
That may take some of the fun away in terms of placing wagers on who wins the division, but there are plenty more opportunities to cash in.
It’s not just a coincidence that Noah and I share similar thoughts and feelings about the teams in this division. It’s all spelled out for us.
The Pats’ franchise runs like clockwork, and this team wins 12+ games year in and year out.
The biggest relevance in any NFL news that the other three teams will have is if their coach is on the hot seat and when the rookie QB will get his shot.
PICKNew England Patriots-550
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