A Thanksgiving meal followed by Rivalry Week in college football – what else could I ask for this weekend?
The festivities actually get underway today with a pair of cross-state rivals going to battle, and then it gets even better tomorrow.
Friday’s slate has several noteworthy matchups like Washington vs. Washington State and Oklahoma vs. West Virginia, but Saturday is when we’ll start seeing the rest of the chips fall where they may.
There are so many games taking place across the country this Saturday that it can be overwhelming to know where to start. The good news for you is that I’ve already dissected a whole bunch of them.
Allow me to get you going with a solid foundation.
I scoured the prices at the more reputable college football betting sites and found four games that I kept coming back to.
Take a look.
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida International Golden Panthers
I’ll start by telling you that ESPN’s matchup predictor pegged Florida International to win this game 52.3% of the time. I’ll follow by telling you that this game will be played at FIU Stadium in Miami, Florida, and it kicks off at noon local time.
So, are you starting to get curious as to why Marshall is favored by a field goal?
The Thundering Herd is at 7-3 on the year and has won four of their last five contests. They actually have a game scheduled against Virginia Tech on December 1st, so they have plenty of football left during the calendar year.
I could tell you about QB Isaiah Green and how he had a career day last week against the Roadrunners of UTSA, but I doubt any of you honestly care about that.
But here’s something I almost guarantee will pique your interest if you are a serious bettor.
While Marshall has gone a “ho-hum” 4-6 against the spread (ATS) this season in college football, the Golden Panthers have torched the bookies so far and are 8-2 ATS!
Once again, here is Vegas disrespecting Florida International and making them a 3-point underdog when this game should be a “pick’em” at the very least!
I think FIU should be a 2 to 2.5-point favorite here, but I don’t get paid to set the lines. I just try to attack them when I think there are discrepancies.
Florida Int’l is coming off back-to-back road wins, and now they get to sleep in their own beds with a chance to clinch a spot in the Conference USA title game against UAB. Marshall has been eliminated and therefore may not be as amped up for this battle.
If you want another piece of data to help sort this out, know that last year when these two teams met, FIU won by 11. The year before, the Golden Panthers won by 17.
I think Florida International is the better team, they have more to play for, and they are at home.
And they are getting 3 points?
Sign me up pronto!
PICKFlorida International (+3)-104
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans
Here we go. It’s time to fade that recency bias!
Notre Dame blew out Syracuse at Yankee Stadium and is now one win away from stamping their ticket to the College Football Playoff.
The Trojans, who have been disappointing all season long, lost to a Bruins team that was 2-8 on the year and one of the laughing stocks in all of the west coast.
The natural reaction would be to assume that Notre Dame blows USC out of the water on Saturday evening, but I’m sensing a different outcome.
I think this game will be closely contested and be a lot tougher than the confident fans in South Bend are anticipating.
I get that the Fighting Irish don’t have an upcoming conference championship to worry about, so this is it for them.
Win, and they’re in.
Expecting Brian Kelly’s squad to come out anything less than gangbusters would be silly, so I am not questioning their desire to perform well in this matchup.
But let’s also look at what’s on the line for Clay Helton and his bunch.
For starters, Helton’s job security could be riding on what happens at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum this Saturday.
I know that Southern Cal has extended him through 2023, but I also know that the athletic department and board of trustees didn’t expect to see their school at 5-6 and completely out of the PAC-12 South race.
USC last won against the putrid Oregon State Beavers on November 3rd, and before that, they hadn’t won since a victory at Colorado on October 13th.
Clearly, going 4-5 during PAC-12 play isn’t what they had in mind. Considering the money and efforts being poured into this program, it’s actually borderline unacceptable.
But conference play is behind them, and they have one more chance to secure bowl eligibility.
Can they get it done? Or will they get out-classed by the far superior team?
Or will it be something in between?
Notre Dame is the clear-cut better football squad, so Irish fans don’t have to worry about me calling for the major upset here.
But there should be enough reasons and good vibes brewing in the USC locker room for the Trojans to at least play this game somewhat close.
USC’s last three losses have come by a total of 11 points, and they should have enough firepower on offense to reach pay dirt a few times.
Based on all the turmoil (wildfire, shooting) that has gone on in southern California over the past few weeks, I think the crowd will be able to give the USC players and coaches the boost they need.
And you better shop your line here, or else you’re leaving way too much equity on the table.
While staples like SportsBetting.ag and Bovada.lv are making you lay -110 on USC at +11 and +11.5 respectively, check out what I found over at MyBookie.ag.
USC is lurking at +12, and the juice is reduced to -105!
That’s called value, baby!
PICKUSC (+12)-105
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats
Just 155 miles separate the two Illinois schools, but they happen to be sitting at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to the Big Ten standings.
At 7-1 during conference play, the Wildcats are poised to play in a bowl game, and they have a chance to elevate their stock with a big win on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini are down at the bottom of the Big Ten West, sitting at 2-6 and a 4-7 record overall. What makes this even worse is that just last Saturday, Illinois suffered their worst loss in program history, and it happened on their home field.
That means that head coach Lovie Smith’s group is no longer in the running for a bowl game, which makes me question their motivation level heading into this contest.
I’m thinking that Illinois doesn’t have a whole lot to play for, while Northwestern will be eagerly trying to impress the voters and move up the food chain.
Northwestern went on the road and beat the same Iowa Hawkeyes team that just demolished the Fighting Illini by 63 points.
Senior quarterback Clayton Thorson hasn’t been great in 2018, but a struggling secondary on the other side is going to help out a lot. Plus the Wildcats are playing this game a mile away from their campus at Ryan Field in front of a packed house of dedicated fans.
The spread is sitting at 17 just about everywhere I looked, but I’m sensing that Northwestern pulls away rather quickly and runs away from the Fighting Illini bigtime.
Given that there’s so much more on the line for the Wildcats, I think they’ll maintain a sufficient lead and win this one quite convincingly.
PICKNorthwestern (-17)-110
BYU Cougars at Utah Utes
Talk about a game with storylines heading in. Where would you like me to start?
First and foremost, this is the 99th edition of the Holy War game between a pair of universities in the state of Utah who aren’t too fond of one another.
The game will be played at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, so expect a sea of red to be swarming in the stands. Utah has won this rivalry game in each of the past seven seasons, but all but one of those contests were decided by 7 points or less.
Already bowl eligible, the Cougars are trying to cement a winning record and end the Utes’ recent domination in the Holy War series.
Since losing in a dogfight at Boise State on November 3rd, Brigham Young has won two games in a row and has a freshman running back who scored four touchdowns last time out.
As for the Utes, they are in a great spot.
Not only are they bowl eligible, but they are also on their way to the PAC-12 Championship game next Friday to face the winner of the Washington-Washington State game. If they win that game, they’ll be on their way to the Rose Bowl for the first time ever.
Many may wonder if Kyle Whittingham is going to be resting players this Saturday considering the November 23rd date that is looming in Santa Clara, and rightfully so.
The Utah head coach has proclaimed that that won’t be the case, but only time will tell.
In a rivalry game like this with so much raw emotion flying around, it’s easy to get lost in the hoopla and forget to focus on the vital statistics and pieces of information that can help you lean toward one side or the other.
Well, try this data out for size.
Utah is 1-4 ATS during its last five home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Well, the Cougars are currently 3-2 as a visitor.
The last nine times that BYU has been a road underdog of 10.5 or more points, they have gone 7-2 ATS. And in the last five games that the Cougars have played against teams with winning home records on the road, they are 4-1 ATS.
Throw in the fact that it tends to go down to the wire when Utah and BYU clash. And don’t forget that Utah has an even bigger game forthcoming in less than one week’s time.
Too much here for me to not want to take the Cougars and the points.
PICKBYU (+12)-110
Enjoy Rivalry Week!
I hope you enjoy your Turkey Day, and I hope this blog helps you get excited for Saturday.
This weekend, I’m looking forward to doing a whole lot of nothing other than watching football, so you know I’ll have some wagers riding on the outcomes.
With so many intriguing games to choose from, you can go in a lot of different directions.
My goal was to simply tell you which routes I’ll be taking!
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