It often seems like tennis majors are pretty easy to predict. After all, every time you tune into the Australian Open, French Open, U.S. Open, or Wimbledon, it feels like the same guys are always winning.
That’s becoming less and less true in recent years, however. Whether it’s because of more parity in the sport or the lack of development of up-and-coming stars (particularly in the United States), we’re starting to see a few more surprises at major championships. And with long-time stars such as Serena Williams, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic nearing to the ends of their careers (although Federer seems like he’ll play forever), the door is open for some new names to be engraved on tennis’ top trophies.
This is going to create a double-edged sword for tennis bettors. On one hand, we might not be able to go back to the well by betting on favorites who have paid off for us in the past. But on the other, there is the opportunity to cash in on some fat odds with unheralded underdogs.
Let’s look back at the recent histories of each of the 4 tennis major championships to see which tournaments have been the most predictable and which major is the best to avoid from a betting perspective.
The 2018 Aussie Open was missing big names like Andy Murray, Serena Williams, and Novak Djokovic, but that isn’t usually the case for the first major of the season. The top players in the world are typically at their healthiest and best early in the campaign, which might explain why the top seeds have tended to dominate on the Melbourne hard court over the years.
When Federer won this year’s men’s championship, it was the 11th time in the last 13 tournaments that one of the top 3 men’s seeds was victorious. The two exceptions were last year (when Federer was ranked #17) and in 2014 (when Stan Wawrinka was seeded eighth), and those are two household names that shouldn’t really have come as that big of a surprise. Djokovic claimed 5 titles in a 6-year span from 2011-16, while Murray reached the final 5 times in 7 years, losing 4 times to The Joker.
Seventh-seeded Angelique Kerber’s win over top-ranked Serena Williams in 2016 remains the only time since 2008 that a top-4 seed did not win the women’s draw at the Australian Open. Serena has won it 5 times since 2007 and 7 times overall in her career. And when Serena sat out this year’s tournament after giving birth to a child last year, the final was a matchup of the top 2 seeds, with #2 Caroline Wozniacki beating #1 Simona Halep. There have been a few surprising women’s finalists recently at the Australian Open (#20 Dominika Cibulkova in 2014 and unseeded Justine Henin in 2010), but when it comes to winning titles, the cream generally rises to the top.
The clay courts of Roland Garros are among the slowest surfaces on the professional tennis circuit, putting a premium on finesse, defense, and strong baseline play while negating much of the power element of the game.
In other words, clay is a perfect fit for Nadal, who is among the best the game has ever seen at placing the ball and also has a wicked top-spin on his forehand. The Spanish wizard has made the most of his advantages on clay surfaces, winning 9 times in a 10-year span from 2005-14 and then reclaiming French Open supremacy in 2017. His loss in the 2009 tournament came to then-unheralded Robin Soderling, but Soderling proved to be a bit of a clay specialist himself when he reached the final in consecutive years, losing to Federer in 2009 and then to Nadal in 2010. Stan Wawrinka, Djokovic, and Federer have been regular finalists in the tournament as well, with Andy Murray (seeded second in 2016) and David Ferrer (seeded fourth in 2013) the only other players to reach the men’s title game since 2005.
The women’s side has been much less predictable in recent history, largely because Serena Williams hasn’t dominated at Roland Garros (or on clay in general) in the way she has at other majors. Although Serena has 3 French Open titles on her resume, she has failed to advance to the semifinals in 10 of her 15 appearances.
The 2017 tournament featured some massive shockers, including top seed Angelique Kerber going out in the first round and unseeded Jelena Ostapenko going on to win the title. Two years ago, unseeded Lucie Safarova reached the championship game, while #21 Sara Errani (2012 finalist), #17 Francesca Schiavone (2010 champion), #21 Mary Pierce (2005 finalist), and unseeded Elena Dementieva (2004 finalist) are other examples of recent Cinderella stories at the French.
Combine the heat and humidity of New York City in the summer with playing on a hard-court surface near the end of a long season, and it’s easy to understand why the U.S. Open is considered by many to be the most grueling of the 4 tennis majors.
It also explains why it’s rare to see any repeat champions at Flushing Meadows. No one has won back-to-back U.S. Open men’s titles since Roger Federer claimed 5 in a row from 2004-08. In fact, Rafael Nadal (3), Novak Djokovic (2), and Federer are the only male players to win there more than once since 1998. Marat Safin, Lleyton Hewitt, Andy Roddick, Juan Martin del Potro, Marin Cilic, Andy Murray, and Stan Wawrinka have also won men’s titles during that span.
The same unpredictability has held true on the women’s side, outside of Serena Williams’ 3-year run from 2012-14. Eight different players have appeared in the finals over the past 4 years, while Kim Clijsters, Venus Williams, and Serena are the only back-to-back champions since 1996.
Injuries and withdrawals by top players in recent years have opened the door for lesser-known players to make a name for themselves at the U.S. Open. A tournament-record 12 players withdrew from the first round in 2015, and the men’s draw at the 2017 tournament saw 5 of the top 11 players in the world (Murray, Wawrinka, Djokovic, Kei Nishikori, and Milos Raonic) pull out due to injury.
With the way that the ball skips quickly and lowly on the grass surfaces of Wimbledon, the tournament has always favored players who have a powerful serve and are strong at finishing plays by the net. Those advantages are only exacerbated by the fact that so few other professional tournaments are played on grass, even though a few grass tournaments have been added to the ATP and WTA tours in recent years.
Since the turn of the century, you’ve basically been able to set your Swiss wristwatch to Roger Federer appearing in the Wimbledon men’s final. Fed has won the tournament 8 times since 2003, while finishing as the runner-up on 3 other occasions. And when Federer hasn’t been crowned champion at the All England Club, it’s been fellow blue-bloods Djokovic (3 times), Rafael Nadal (2), and Andy Murray (2) winning every other men’s title over the past 15 years.
Since women generally can’t serve the ball as hard as men (the fastest men’s serve in history is 163 miles per hour, compared to 130 mph for women), that has leveled the playing field a bit in the ladies’ draw. The hard-hitting Williams sisters have combined to win 12 of the past 18 championships, but we’ve also seen much lesser-known players such as Eugenie Bouchard, Marion Bartoli, and Sabine Lisicki reach the final in recent years.
This is obviously a bit of a subjective question. If you love betting on the big names in tennis at short prices, you’ll want to avoid tournaments like the U.S. Open and the women’s side of the French. If you like rolling the dice with some dark horses paying big returns, you probably aren’t a fan of the Australian Open or Wimbledon.
The top players are usually worn down by the long season, and it’s even hard to take longshots when you don’t know if they’re entirely healthy. There’s nothing worse than seeing one of your tournament futures bets lose because the player withdraws in the first round, which is something we’re seeing way too often at Flushing Meadows. Besides, once we get to late August/early September, there are plenty of other things worthy of our betting dollars, with baseball going into the stretch drive and football about to get underway.
The French Open is a close second on my list of tennis majors to avoid betting, and the gap will be narrowed that much more once Nadal is past his prime. Betting on players with strong baseline games and defensive tactics will always be a good strategy at Roland Garros, but when it becomes less obvious who the clay specialists are, the men’s draw at the French might become as much of a guessing game as the women’s side already is.
The Australian Open and Wimbledon, meanwhile, should continue to be the easier tennis majors to bet on, in my opinion. Favorites are most likely to live up to their potential when they’re fresh at the start of the year in Melbourne, and the grass surface at Wimbledon always tends to reward the top players in the world, as well.
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