When it comes to sports bets that aren’t decided on the court, ice, field or pitch, I’m not sure it gets any better than the NFL draft.
Once a few months have passed after the Super Bowl, our gridiron betting itch is in desperate need of a good scratch. And as much as some off-season futures or the NFL combine can help with that, betting on the draft is a great way to renew our wagering relationship with the NFL, not to mention keep things exciting in what can otherwise quickly turn into a pretty boring few hours of television.
Betting on the first overall pick is a popular way for most of us to kick off our NFL draft betting. Being the first pick is a huge honor for whichever player has his name called first, there’s always lots of speculation and suspense leading up to the first selection, and we don’t need to wait around long to learn the outcome of our wager.
However, if you’re eager to bet on who will be the first overall pick in this year’s draft, brace yourself because it’s not going to be easy.
Here are 6 reasons why this year’s first overall pick is virtually impossible to predict, along with some advice about how we might be able to actually capitalize on that.
When you’ve won just 1 game over the last 2 years like the Browns have, you need a lot more than just some tweaks and fine-tuning to get back to respectability. Cleveland’s roster has more holes than a piece of Swiss cheese, especially on the offensive side of the ball, so their management needs to approach this draft thinking more about the big picture than just trying to get the best player at #1.
What do I mean by that? Well, I mean that the way they decide to go with their first overall pick may be influenced by the fact that they pick fourth overall as well. If there’s a lot of similar talent at a specific position (ie. quarterback in this year’s draft) but just 1 standout at another position (ie. Saquon Barkley at running back), the Browns may decide to snag the standout #1 with the knowledge that they’ll still have the ability to draft another really good player 3 picks later.
The Browns can also afford to roll the dice a bit by passing on elite players #1 overall if they don’t believe the teams picking directly behind them are going to take them. The Giants or Colts (who pick 2nd and 3rd overall) are both believed to be more interested in drafting players who can help them win right now, not long-term QB development projects, so Cleveland may still have the pick of any QB it wants at #4.
What may make a lot of my last point moot is that it’s basically impossible to try and get inside the head of the Cleveland front office. Even though the Browns are now on their 4th general manager in 5 years and 6th in the past decade, the remaining constant in Cleveland has been that the Browns always seem to zig when you expect them to zag, go unconventional when you think the answer is obvious, or go conservative when the potential is there for a shot at much higher upside.
It’s gotten to the point that the Browns may need to pull a George Costanza and start acting against the opposite of their instincts. After all, if every instinct they have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.
Of course, that’s not going to happen. As much as we may mock the Browns for always getting it wrong, the new GM and his management team are going to arrive at their own conclusions with the full conviction that they’re making smart decisions. They’re not going to collectively decide that Josh Rosen is the can’t-miss no-brainer #1 pick, then avoid picking him because the franchise’s draft history is so bad, especially when it comes to quarterbacks.
But no matter who the Browns go with at #1, history has taught us that we will probably be surprised. When you’re trying to handicap the NFL Draft, knowing that you’ll likely be surprised by what happens doesn’t make it any easier.
The 2018 NFL draft odds have shifted around so much over the past couple of months that their movement would put even the most volatile of stocks to shame.
In late February, Bovada made Sam Darnold a +190 favorite to have his name called first, but with Saquon Barkley, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield also legitimate threats paying +500 or less. A couple of weeks later, after Barkley wowed scouts with his bench press and 40-yard dash performances at the combine, the Penn State star overtook Darnold as the betting favorite, while Rosen plummeted down to +800. Fast forward to early April, and Darnold was a juicy -400 favorite at 5Dimes to be picked first overall, followed by Allen (+200), while Barkley had fallen to +550 and Mayfield was down to +1750.
At the time of writing, 5Dimes was one of the few betting sites I visited that actually had betting odds posted for the 2018 NFL draft. Bovada and BetOnline didn’t, and they usually have betting lines posted for everything. That, along with the wild fluctuation of odds for the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, tells us that the bookies are just as confused by what the Browns plan to do as we are.
Even if we were to conclude that the Browns are going to go with a quarterback with the #1 pick in the 2018 draft, that doesn’t exactly narrow things down.
Darnold may seem like the most likely QB to go first overall (5Dimes also makes Darnold a -400 favorite to be the first pivot drafted) but he’s not a slam dunk. He’s coming off a disappointing season at USC (disappointing based on the lofty expectations he set following his phenomenal 2016 campaign) and he turns the ball over quite a bit, making him more of a project at the NFL level than someone who can make an immediate impact.
Allen might appeal more to the Browns because of his pure athletic ability, but it’s hard to know how good he is after seeing him go up against Mountain West opponents during his time at Wyoming. Rosen is the prototypical pocket passer and seems like a safer choice when it comes to his floor, but probably lacks the high ceiling that you look for in a #1 overall pick. Mayfield’s charismatic and boisterous style make him a fierce competitor, but also may not be the type of thing an NFL team wants to deal with. And then there’s the video game-like numbers of Lamar Jackson, along with all the skepticism that his style could succeed in the pros.
There’s a lot of beauty at the QB position in this year’s draft, but beauty is always a subjective thing based on the eye of the beholder. With so many varying styles and strengths in this year’s QB class, the pivot the Browns pick first will depend on what they value most in their next franchise quarterback.
Though quarterback is the sexiest position in football, it’s not the only one that matters. Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars were one good quarter of football away from reaching the Super Bowl last season despite having a middle-of-the-road passing attack, just the latest example of how teams can enjoy success by playing strong defense and running the ball effectively.
Like I said earlier, the Browns need to address a lot of issues on their team. With so many strong quarterback options available, they may want to use their first overall pick on standouts at other positions instead. Barkley is the obvious non-QB candidate, but there are quite a few others to choose from in this year’s draft as well.
Offensive guard Quenton Nelson is already drawing comparisons to Larry Allen, who anchored the Cowboys’ stellar running game for so many years in the 1990s. Defensive end Bradley Chubb has the tools to be a game changer and the Browns have reportedly contemplated what he’d look like on the same line as 2017 first-round pick Myles Garrett. Defensive backs Denzel Ward and Minkah Fitzpatrick have the look of players who could be the centerpiece of a lock-down secondary, a huge asset in today’s pass-heavy NFL.
Drafting any of those players instead of a stud quarterback would be quickly met with criticism and ridicule, but they’re also a much safer choice as potential future Pro Bowlers. At this point in time, the Browns may prefer to go with a bird in hand, rather than chase the proverbial two in the bush by drafting a quarterback who may or may not pan out.
The final point to consider here is that it may not be the Browns who make the first overall pick after all. With the fourth overall pick in their pocket and the rights to 3 more selections in the second round, Cleveland could choose to deal the first overall pick to the highest bidder in return for more picks in the draft or even some veteran talent that can make an immediate difference in 2018.
The Colts already made a similar move leading up to this year’s draft, trading their #3 selection to the Jets because they aren’t believed to be interested in a QB and wanted to stockpile picks instead. After acquiring Tyrod Taylor in a trade with the Bills, Cleveland isn’t as desperate for quarterback help in 2018 and could leverage that into more picks later in the draft, focusing on quantity of prospects more than quality.
If it’s a different team making the first overall selection in the 2018 draft, everything changes. That’s just one more reason why predicting the #1 pick this year looks virtually impossible at this point.
With all the uncertainty surrounding who will go first overall in the 2018 NFL draft, I definitely don’t recommend loading up on 1 of the favorites. Especially when the favorite seems to change as much as the wind, indicating that not even the oddsmakers have a good handle on what to expect when the draft gets underway.
However, there is a silver lining to all of this uncertainty: the underdogs have a lot more value. When a team with as much unpredictability as the Browns holds the cards, longshots like Chubb (+1500 at 5Dimes), Mayfield (+1750) and even Fitzpatrick (+7500) can’t be overlooked.
The one safe assumption we can make here is that Barkley will be the first running back picked in this year’s draft. If Cleveland ends up holding onto the first overall pick, I can totally see the Browns going the safer route and claiming the Penn State product, which makes Barkley my wager to be the #1 pick at +550 odds.
Even if you buy into the theory that running backs are a dime a dozen these days, Barkley can be an immediate difference-maker for the Browns in 2018, and Cleveland can use the fourth overall pick to take a quarterback who won’t be burdened with the pressure of being #1 in the draft.
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