This past weekend saw the 2018 NBA playoffs start up, which means a whole new season is roaring to life in the sports betting world.
Combine that with the 2018 NHL playoffs, the 2018 MLB regular season, and a litany of other leagues already in season, and sports bettors have a lot to think about right now.
When there is this much going on in the sports world, I typically think of two things right away: stick to what I know, and how can I make the most money possible?
I still think staying in your lane is key to consistent profit in sports betting, but chasing logical upsets is a very quick and easy way to score big financial gains as well.
Not every pick will land on its feet, but this week offers some interesting upside. Here are my favorite upset picks to consider for the week of April 16th.
The Wizards arguably got hosed in their game-one showdown with the Toronto Raptors. John Wall kept Washington in the game throughout the contest, only to see a few bad calls interrupt a late run.
Toronto was expected to win that game but had been 1-11 in their last 12 first-round series openers. Needless to say, some bettors were expecting an upset.
It almost happened, and I think the Wiz at the very least proved they won’t be an easy out in this first-round series.
Washington split the season series (2-2) with Toronto during the regular season, and the last time these two sides met in the playoffs in 2015, they actually swept the Raptors.
The Wiz are no lock here, but they should be out to prove that they are going to be a threat in this series. Taking game two will allow them to do that.
Their +255 price at Bovada makes them a fun upset pick going into game two.
The Bucks are regarded as interesting upset candidates in round one, largely because the 2-seeded Boston Celtics don’t feel quite as dominant sans Kyrie Irving.
Bettors saw the upside with Milwaukee immediately in their first-round series opener, as the Bucks narrowly lost an overtime thriller in Boston.
I think the Bucks are worth a mild look as a series winner, but it may make sense to play this one close to the chest for now.
After giving the Celtics all they could handle in game one, the Bucks should have the confidence and blueprint to snag a win or two in this series at the very least.
If the Bucks are going to keep this interesting, it might make sense for them to tilt bettors early. I don’t hate the value (+135 at Bovada) in a straight-up upset when the two sides face again this week.
The Jazz were not able to take down OKC in game one of their first-round series, but had it not been for an outside shooting explosion from Paul George, they could have.
PG-13 may not be denied in this series, but this is still a tense battle between two defensive-minded teams. Utah knows they have to respond right away in game two; otherwise, they are at risk of handing this series to the Thunder.
The big thing with OKC all year long is that they play down to their competition, and they’ve been remarkably inconsistent. Oklahoma City normally isn’t a team I bet against when they’re at home, but the Jazz bring a tough defense to the table and will be hard-pressed to tie this series up.
The better play may be to just take the points with Utah going into game two, but bettors are getting solid value at +165.
More than anything, I just don’t trust OKC to suddenly morph into some dominant team. Utah is a sneaky bet going into game two.
I’d like more value here considering the Blazers were initially favored to win this first-round series, but I don’t see how bettors can scoff at a -110 price with the Pels up 1-0.
New Orleans took game one by two points, and that was shocking for two reasons: it came at the Moda Center, and New Orleans won due to impressive defensive performance.
The Blazers did not look good in this contest, and if the explosive Pels are suddenly capable of beating Portland at their own game, Damian Lillard and co. are absolutely in trouble.
Vegas is splitting this series right down the middle and is now pricing it as a pure pick’em. That doesn’t technically make them an underdog to win this thing, but it’s close enough to bite.
Portland at -110 is also a fine value considering they still get to finish this series at home if it goes to game seven. However, the Pels look like a serious threat here and are up already. I don’t mind pouncing on them at -110 and hoping game one was a tone-setter and not just a fluke.
Pretty much every series in the first round of the 2018 NHL playoffs is on its way to being decided.
The Ducks are one of many teams down 2-0 already, and while things look dire, you have to think someone will push back and at least give their series a go.
If that is indeed going to happen, I tend to think it’ll come via Anaheim, who sports a strong defense and were one of the more balanced teams all year.
They came into this first-round series with the San Jose Sharks fairly evenly matched, and both games have been tight. If the Ducks can show more offensive ability with the series shifting to San Jose, I think they can pull back into this one.
Bettors aren’t just looking for a one-off upset bet. The Ducks could be in play for that, but their defensive ability may also make them one of the few series underdogs still worth targeting.
I’d love more value than their current +400 price, but a mild bet on a turnaround isn’t crazy.
Another fun upset pick for this week could go down at UFC Fight Night 128.
I am not one to bet against the seasoned Frankie Edgar, but the 36-year-old has hit a bit of a wall recently with losses in two of his last four bouts.
Normally I wouldn’t hop on Cub Swanson in this spot, but Edgar suffered his first KO loss of an impressive career in his last bout, and suddenly he’s looking rather beatable.
I’d prefer more betting value with Swanson, but he’s faced Edgar in the past and knows he needs to avoid takedowns. Edgar submitted him back in 2014, but Swanson nearly lasted five rounds before that happened, and he knows what’s coming.
Edgar is not likely to get a submission so easily the second time around, while Swanson comes in fairly hot with four wins in his last five matches.
The KO power doesn’t side with Edgar, either. He really isn’t known for dominating opponents with his fists, while Swanson has been taken out by punches just once in his entire career.
Instead, this bout could be headed for a decision, and I think if Swanson can avoid a disastrous takedown, he might be able to inflict enough damage to snag the upset.
I’d watch pricing to see if you can get even more value via Swanson going into this weekend, but as he stands, he’s not the worst play on the board.
It’s been a weird start to the 2018 MLB season, as the Washington Nationals have stumbled out of the gates (7-9), and the New York Mets (12-2) have looked dominant.
I’m not sure anyone expected that to get the year going, but things could start to even out when the two sides clash for a second series already this year.
New York had the upper hand in the first series, but bettors get pretty solid value here if they back the Nats at +130.
Washington still has a stacked offense on paper, and it’s pretty arguable the Nats hold the pitching edge in two of their three showdowns this week.
New York is the tentative favorite with this series going down at Citi Field, but I don’t mind taking a shot on the more talented Nats at this price over.
Another valuable MLB series underdog resides in Tampa Bay, where the Rangers are not projected to upstage the Rays.
I’m not seeing the logic here, as Tampa Bay has been brutal (3-12) to start the year and are also just 1-6 at their home base. Texas, meanwhile, really proved their worth by taking down the Houston Astros twice recently.
The Rangers aren’t exactly a safe bet these days, and it’s arguable the Rays will hold the pitching edge in this series, but Texas without a doubt has the more explosive offense. I’ll ride their bats at a fun +150 price at Sportsbetting.ag.
That does it for this week’s look at viable upset picks in the sports betting world. Not all of these picks will land, but they give bettors a look at some interesting spots where the door is open to some fun value.
Upsets happen all the time in the sports realm, and while you don’t always want to bet on the underdog, tracking the right one can be highly profitable. Here’s to hoping a few of these calls go your way and help you win big money this week!
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