While much of the golf world is already looking ahead towards next week’s U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, I like to keep my mind focused on the present.
It’s the week before the year’s second major, and I know many of you can’t wait for the action to get underway. But what if I told you there were some opportunities to flip a quick profit so that you can increase your betting allowance for the festivities next week?
I am talking about the FedEx St. Jude Classic set to take place at TPC Southwind this week in Memphis.
Elvis fans get to trade in their leather jackets and guitars for a hat and some sunscreen as they watch the likes of Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson make as many birdies as they possibly can. As awesome as the commotion and hoopla of Beale Street is, it takes a back seat to the golf this week.
That’s right; the Tennessee locals who come out and support the tournament are in for quite the treat from Thursday-Sunday. The par-70 golf course only features two par 5s and is traditionally one of the more difficult “TPC layouts” that the players face all year long.
It’ll be the final year of this tournament’s existence, but golf fans in Memphis need not worry. The PGA Tour announced that TPC Southwind will be the new home of a World Golf Championship (WGC) event, starting as soon as next season.
All that means is that this is our last chance to cash in on some winning wagers at the FedEx St. Jude Classic! So enough small talk; let’s move right into the value I found this week.
If you have read any of our material on understanding the importance of shopping lines and browsing through multiple sites, then you’ll know exactly how I felt this week when trying to lock in on some value.
Typically, Bovada.lv is ahead of its competitors when it comes providing a vast selection of prop and matchup bets for a standard PGA Tour event.
The only problem is that when I glanced at their site in preparation for writing this article, I noticed that they had no matchups listed, and many of their usual props were missing.
Perhaps it’s because the FedEx St. Jude Classic isn’t a “marquee” event on tour, and their oddsmakers are busy getting ready for next week’s U.S. Open.
Either way, I had to do some digging. That’s when I came across Sportsbook.ag’s betting sheet and noticed that they had a much bigger selection. Take a peek at what stood out to me and see if you agree with my takes.
Are you ready to take a ride into value town? Because this bet is like a first-class ticket. Ben Crane and Harris English are both +290 to finish in the top 20 and are both +675 to finish in the top 10. The two men have identical +850 odds to win the golf tournament.
So why the heck is Ben Crane +110 in this matchup, and why is Harris English -140? Shouldn’t both golfers be -115? The answer is yes, they should, and it’s the exact reason I am all over Crane and his insane value on this bet.
I mean, this course just sets up perfectly for the former Oregon Duck star and 5-time winner on the PGA Tour. Don’t believe me? Just look at the data.
Let’s get this out in the open to avoid any confusion – TPC Southwind is no cakewalk. Players are going to miss greens and be forced to escape from trouble.
Thankfully, Crane leads the PGA Tour in sand save percentage and is 7th in scrambling from inside 10 yards. This is one gritty competitor, ladies and gentlemen. He won’t give up, and he gets the most out of his rounds.
Remember, this is a matchup bet, not a bet for who will win the tournament outright. Ben Crane has been a model of consistency, making the cut in each of his last 7 starts, including a T-8th last time out at the Fort Worth Invitational.
On the other side of the coin, we have English, who has missed 4 of his last 7 cuts and hasn’t finished better than a tie for 20th during that stretch.
No need to shake your head and overthink this one. With a favorable price of +110 in his matchup to beat Harris English, I have no qualms in placing a handsome-looking wager on Ben Crane here. I suggest you do the same.
As I was continuing my search for the prices that just seemed a bit “off,” I came across this bet and stopped in my tracks. Brian Gay might not be a household name for those of you who aren’t golf enthusiasts. But check this out.
The 46-year-old former Florida Gator is about as steady as they come on the PGA Tour when it comes to courses that don’t require immense distance off the tee. With 7 top-25s already under his belt this season alone, Gay is no stranger to success at TPC Southwind.
In fact, Gay’s third career PGA Tour victory came at the 2009 St. Jude Classic at this very same golf course. Here in 2016, Gay sandwiched a pair of 70s between bookended 66s on his way to finishing 6th.
The dude who you’ll always find hidden behind thick black shades is fresh off finishing 3rd in his 36-hole sectional qualifier in Columbus on Monday, punching his ticket to Southampton next week.
Gay secured his spot in the U.S. Open by shooting consecutive rounds of 4-under-par 68, including a bogey-free round in the afternoon.
If you are looking for a golfer that will knock your socks off and impress you with flashy skills, this isn’t your guy.
However, if you want to target a player who is primed to fly under the radar but is a serious threat to contend at this specific golf course, I think Brian Gay is a terrific choice.
I think an honest and fair price I would be comfortable betting on Gay to finish inside the top 20 would be in the +220 to +230 range. At +300 and some added incentive, it’s absolutely worth a shot.
I know, I know. The kid is 19 years old and has only played in 5 PGA Tour events. Are you wondering why he is even money to finish in the top 20? Because I’m happy to tell you.
The Chilean-born golfer may have just turned professional earlier this year, but he has wasted no time in getting adjusted to life as a pro. His recent play has earned him a special temporary membership to the PGA Tour, and I expect big, big things out of the braces-wearing kid who plays draped in Adidas clothing.
I won’t waste your time telling you “how good this kid can be” or “what the future holds” for the bright young star.
I mentioned that the kid has yet to turn 20, and I stated that he’s only participated in 5 PGA Tour events. What I failed to bring to light is that Niemann has already logged a trio of top-10s in those 5 starts, including an 8th and a 6th over the past two weeks leading in.
Talk about a hot golfer. Joaquin is blazing through these tournaments like it’s his job. Well, guess what, folks? Niemann is no longer the undeniably number-one-ranked amateur in the world anymore.
He is on the PGA Tour, making a name for himself. This is his job.
Here’s another matchup that is oozing with value. Talk about “horses for courses.” Take a look at what Billy Horschel has accomplished at TPC Southwind.
In the three FedEx St. Jude Classic events from 2013-2015, Horschel finished 10th-6th-8th. He didn’t play in 2016, but he fired a final-round 64 and recorded a 4th-place showing last year at this golf tournament.
Since the Masters in early April, Horschel has played rock-solid golf, making 5/6 cuts. This includes a victory and two other finishes inside the top 11. Billy is in a great frame of mind, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t find himself on the first couple pages of the leaderboard come Sunday.
I didn’t even get to the part about why this wager represents so much raw value. If you want to bet on Billy to finish in the top 20, you have to lay -140. Byeong Hun An is even money for that same bet. As for finishing in the top 10? Again, you’ll find Billy (+167) much higher on the board than An, who is +240.
These prices lead me to believe that the oddsmakers are projecting Horschel to beat An this week. But instead, they have Byeong Hun favored in his matchup against Billy.
When I see these discrepancies and my research matches my first suspicion, I don’t ask any questions. I just place the bet.
You can go ahead and wait for the U.S. Open next week to get your golf betting fix in if you want. Or you can take advantage of the value that Sportsbook.ag has opened up for us, because that’s what I’ll be doing.
Figuring out who will win a matchup or which golfers will finish in the top 20 is not an exact science. There are no guarantees in the game of golf.
At the same time, those of us who are researching the right information can position ourselves to make some money when we spot what we perceive to be “bad lines.”
The great news for you is that you don’t have to roll your sleeves up and get dirty; I already did that for you. I browsed through all the respectable betting sites until I was able to find some wagers that warranted some action. When it’s time to thank me for the winning picks, you can message me right here.
Now, you can relax. It’s time for you to go enjoy the FedEx St. Jude Classic while I start my homework for next week’s United States Open.
My expansive guide to all the action at Shinnecock Hills will be available in time for you to capitalize on.
In the meantime, good luck building up your bankroll!
The post Preview of the FedEx St. Jude Classic 2018 – Finding the Betting Value appeared first on GamblingSites.com.
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