The most popular tennis tournament in the world, Wimbledon, is starting soon. The legendary English grass courts are where legends of the sport can be born. This year’s edition looks close, and it’s hard to predict who will win.
In the men’s tournament, the favorite is Roger Federer. Can the Swiss maestro actually get another Grand Slam at the age of 36?
There are plenty of candidates to dethrone him, but no one looks to be in particularly good shape.
As for the women, the situation is even closer there. Ever since Serena Williams gave birth, all Grand Slams are wide open, and the 2018 Wimbledon is no exception.
The question is, are there some solid betting opportunities in this situation? Let’s take a look.
The situation in male tennis right now is a weird one. Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have won the last couple of Grand Slams and are looking far better than the competition, despite their age.
At the same time, a generation of players that was supposed to take over after those two, Djokovic, and Murray looks lost and incapable of consistently producing top tennis.
The likes of Dimitrov, Goffin, Querrey, and a couple of others are in their prime and should be winning stuff. Instead, they struggle to impress against the old guns.
Finally, there’s a wave of exciting youngsters who are impressive but still can’t find enough consistency to actually win a Grand Slam and often fall short.
The big question for Wimbledon 2018 is if this will change. I’m not so sure, but let’s look at the main favorites and the prices for them to grab the title.
Roger will be 37 in just over a month. Somehow, he is the current number 2 in the rankings and is still the favorite here. He won Wimbledon last year and the Australian Open at the start of this season. Grass is his best surface, and as in 2017, Roger’s plan was to miss the entire season on clay to prepare for Wimbledon.
He returned in Stuttgart and Halle, winning the first tournament and reaching the final of the second. The Swiss legend looks in good shape. The price for him to bring the trophy home is 2.75, which is certainly tempting for a man who’s done so 8 times in the past.
If Roger can recreate the performance from last year or even from Australia early in 2018, no one can beat him, in all likelihood.
A couple of tough games on the road to the later stages could prevent him from winning. And yet, Federer didn’t drop a set in 2017. Will his age effect that much only a year later? I think the price might be worth a shot.
The former number 1 in the world, Novak Djokovic has struggled in the past 2 years or so. He had a solid tournament in Queens and certainly looks like he’s finding his rhythm.
However, there were signs of the Nole we knew before. And yet, he keeps struggling both physically and mentally. In fact, Djokovic himself said he is not a contender for this year’s Wimbledon.
While I think this an attempt to relieve the pressure, I don’t think the Serbian player is ready to win a Grand Slam again. He will have to improve further. In fact, I have the feeling we might never see Djokovic win a major again.
After all, he is past his prime, too, and the younger players will eventually raise their levels enough to beat the veterans.
I think the price of 5.00 doesn’t offer any value, so Djokovic is not the best bet out there.
Next in line is the man who beat Novak Djokovic in the Queens final. Marin Cilic has won Wimbledon before and is in fine form in 2018. He was also the finalist in last year’s edition and lost against Roger Federer.
The Croatian tower loves playing on grass and certainly has the potential to win the Wimbledon title. In fact, I think he is one of the better choices out there, priced at 7.00 or so.
He knows how to win here and has been one of the most consistent players on the tour in the past couple of years.
He has a couple of finals and semifinals in big tournaments. Sure, Cilic is usually just short of that final step, but he is in his best years and could take advantage if Federer is not at his best this time around.
Rafael Nadal was once again devastating at the Roland Garros and will be looking for a chance to add another Wimbledon title to his collection. He is the current number 1 in the rankings, after Federer failed to win the tournament in Halle.
Grass is by far the weakest surface of Nadal, though, so I’m not sure why the price for him is just 7.00. Ever since 2011, the Spaniard’s best performance was to reach round 4. His style is simply not suited to the surface, and there are plenty of players capable of knocking Nadal out.
I don’t think Rafa is among the favorites at Wimbledon 2018.
There are a couple of players priced in the 15-25.00 range, but I decided to pick Kyrgios here. The Australian is one of the most talented and yet controversial characters in the circuit.
He has the ability but has yet to find the consistency to reach the last 4 of a Grand Slam tournament. But still, Kyrgios is only 23 and has all the time in the world to actually improve.
Grass is his favorite surface, and the Australian has a record of 10-4 at the Wimbledon, his best win rate in a Grand Slam tournament.
Kyrgios also had a solid preparation and was barely beaten by Cilic in the semifinals in Queens. Of course, he once again reminded the world how immature he could be.
If Kyrgios manages to get his act together, he could make a deep run in Wimbledon 2018. I don’t think he has a shot at winning, though.
There are a few players like Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, and Del Potro that are considered somewhat competitive.
While I feel they could have a decent tournament, I see none of them as the potential winner for various reasons. This is why I won’t discuss their chances.
I’m inclined to pick Roger Federer, as he is still the best player on grass, and his focus of the last couple of months has been targeted at Wimbledon. Still, the price of 2.75 is just a little too low for my taste.
One or two longer matches could start impacting his condition, which could fail him in the later stages. This is why I will go for Marin Cilic at 7.00. He likes the surface, has done it before and has been in fine shape recently.
While the men’s Wimbledon looks close, the female draw is a complete lottery. Serena Williams is now out of her prime physically, which leaves the Grand Slams wide open. We’ve seen how tight the last couple of them were, and I expect more of the same in Wimbledon 2018.
Let’s take a look at the players that are most likely to be in the conversation here.
The powerful Petra Kvitova is the favorite of the bookies for this year’s Wimbledon. The Czech player has won the title twice in the past, but the last time that happened was in 2014.
Kvitova has failed to surpass round 3 since, but this year is more promising. She managed to win the Birmingham classic and looks good on grass, which is her favorite surface.
The power of Kvitova’s left hand is what brought her two titles, but I feel she’ll need more than just power to go all the way at Wimbledon this year.
Serena gave birth in 2017, which naturally slowed her career down. Her last Grand Slam title was the Australian Open last year.
She did make a return for the French Open, but she had some health issues that forced her to retire. The conditioning has been the main target of Serena ever since, and it looks like she’s ready for Wimbledon.
However, there is another problem related to the maternity leave. Williams has fallen in the rankings, and there’s a dispute right now if she will be seeded. The decision will be made by the Wimbledon officials on Tuesday.
The initial signs are that she will be seeded, as many people from the tennis community argue that women shouldn’t be punished in the rankings for getting pregnant.
If I’m correct in my assumption and Serena is seeded, I think the price of 6.00 is more than decent.
Garbine Muguruza is only 24 but is ranked 3rd by the WTA and has won 2 Grand Slam titles. One of them was Wimbledon last year, which is a testimony to her ability to play on grass.
Her style certainly suits the surface, and she is in decent shape. The problem with Muguruza is that her young age makes her prone to inconsistencies. When it comes to raw potential, she certainly is up there with the best.
A price of 7.50 for her to win Wimbledon does look good and is certainly a bet worth considering.
The German Angelique Kerber is a former number 1 with plenty of experience. She was at the top of her game in 2016, winning the Australian Open and the US Open, as well as reaching Wimbledon’s final.
Kerber has struggled to replicate her form in 2017, but there are some encouraging signs this year. She reached the last 4 in Australia and the last 8 in France in the first two Majors of the season.
Her aggressive style and power make her a formidable opponent at Wimbledon, and many will struggle against Kerber.
Still, I don’t think she is in her top form yet, and winning the tournament would be a step too far, even if the price is 11.00.
As in the men’s draw, there are plenty of players priced around the 15-20.00 mark. I decided to include Madison Keys in my analysis instead of the rest for a couple of reasons.
Despite her young age of 23, Keys is already an emerging star and one of the brightest prospects in the US tennis.
Keys has a powerful serve and a strong forehand that make her dangerous on grass. I think she has a genuine shot at making a deep run at Wimbledon. In fact, I could see her go all the way and win her maiden Grand Slam. The price of 16.00 is certainly worth a shot.
There are plenty of other players who are considered in the mix for Wimbledon. The likes of Sloane Stephens, Simona Halep, Karolina Pliskova, and a couple more have the potential to win the huge prize.
However, I don’t like the odds for any of them, so I excluded them from this post. Of course, you never know when the odds are that close, but I will still stick with the betting opportunities I like the most.
I expect Serena Williams to be seeded and fit for this tournament. This is why I simply can’t ignore the price of 6.00 for her to lift the trophy.
I will combine that will a smaller bet on Madison Keys, as I feel she is gradually building towards a Grand Slam title, and this could be it. At a price of 16.00, it’s certainly worth trying.
I’m really looking forward to Wimbledon this year as a tennis fan. The fact that it’s wide open for both the men’s and women’s championships should make for a great couple of weeks of sporting entertainment.
With my betting hat on, however, I’m less enthused. This tournament is a really tough one to predict, and I can’t say I’m supremely confident about any of my picks. With that being said, though, I do feel they represent value.
I’ll also be looking for some spots to get my money down in individual matches. If I find any particularly good opportunities, I’ll be sure to share them with you right here.
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