The favorite of Group H, Colombia, crashed at the start of the soccer World Cup but showed a completely different face in the 2nd round.
The South American team still can qualify for the next stage with a win in the last match against Senegal.
The African team could’ve been there already, but they blew the lead twice against Japan. As a result, both teams now have 4 points and lead the group standings.
A draw would be enough for both to progress, but this is no easy task. Japan will face a Polish side who will be eager to register at least one win and save some grace.
I think both games in the third round of this group have the potential to become thrilling encounters. Of course, my main goal would be to find some good betting opportunities.
Before I proceed with that, let’s analyze what happened in round 2 first.
After losing the opener against Japan, Colombia needed a performance and a result against Poland. My expectations were that the South American team certainly could win.
The start was a bit tricky, with Poland having more of the ball. However, Colombia did withstand the pressure without allowing the opponent any clear chances, and they slowly gained control. This brought a couple of opportunities, and Colombia was leading 1-0 at half time.
The second 45 minutes showed how good this side actually is. The South American team controlled the game and countered Poland at will. This led to two more goals for a final score of 3-0.
There are a couple of conclusions that can be drawn here. James Rodriguez is certainly a man who makes the differences. He was named man of the match and pulled the strings from midfield.
The Bayern Munich midfielder was able to keep the ball well when needed and produce some stunning key passes when the opportunity was there. If he stays fit, the sky is the limit for Colombia.
Especially since James has the supporting cast to succeed. The likes of Cuadrado, Quintero, Falcao, and Barrios all played well.
On top of that, the defense looked completely different from the game against Japan. The likes of Sanchez and Mina were rock-solid and didn’t allow Lewandowski much space.
Colombia looked like a well-oiled machine and the team that reached the last 8 in the 2014 Brazil World Cup.
At the same time, Poland again struggled to impress. I’m not sure what’s wrong with this team. There are plenty of decent players all around the pitch, including one of the best strikers in the world in Robert Lewandowski.
Unfortunately for them, nothing seems to work. The midfield is completely unable to create any clear chances for the strikers. There’s no purpose or penetration, just mindless sideways passing most of the time.
Another big problem is the leaky defense. Poland has the personnel to protect the goal well but simply doesn’t execute. I expected more from the side, but it’s all over for them now.
Still, I think the players will be ashamed by the result in the first two games and will be motivated. They can do better in the last match against Japan.
It will be a tough task, as the Asians have impressed me a lot so far. The local association took a huge gamble by replacing the coach just 2 months before the World Cup. I expected a completely different result and mostly negative consequences.
Instead, Japan has 4 points and is on the brink of qualifying for the next stage. One could argue that the opener against Colombia was a bit lucky, since they played with a man advantage for almost the entire match.
The game against Senegal proved that Japan is simply a solid and dangerous soccer team. The opponent went ahead twice, but that didn’t break the Asians. They managed to equalize both times. In fact, I feel they were the better team overall and had more chances.
A bit of luck and a better finishing could’ve brought Japan all the points and a spot in the last 16. However, the country shouldn’t worry that much. If the team performs at the same level as against Poland, they should complete the job.
Finally, it’s time to talk about Senegal. The Africans once again showed a lot of speed and dominated the first half. However, they were the worse team on the pitch in the second and easily could’ve lost the match against Japan.
The main problem with this team is the lack of consistent performance throughout the whole 90 minutes. If they don’t improve that, an early exit is certainly on the cards.
So, let’s see what could be expected from the 3rd-round games of this Group H.
Let’s take a look at the most popular betting markets for this match.
The bookies believe this game is pretty close, and I tend to agree. The Polish team has underperformed so far, but it does include some quality players. In a way, the pressure is off now, and many teams like Peru, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco benefited in such a situation to perform well in their last World Cup match.
I suspect something similar may happen with Poland. The side’s major problem in this competition has been the lack of clear chances for the strikers. If Lewandowski and Milik have some opportunities, they could be clinical.
The defense of Japan has been leaky so far, and the European team should be able to find some space. On top of that, the Polish squad is taller and stronger, so the set pieces could be a problem as well.
The Japanese back line may not be very consistent, but the attack is working well. The Asians scored twice in both of their games so far and had more chances to find the net. I was surprised by that, as I expected Japan to struggle in front of goal.
The side will now face a defense that has conceded 5 times so far in the tournament, which is another reason to believe Japan will be able to find the net.
Picking a winner is a bit challenging for this match. The draw would be good enough for Japan, so the team will be a bit cautious. At the same time, Poland has nothing to lose. Sides in such a situation usually play a free-flowing football.
Since I expect a lot of chances and some goals, I feel the over 2.5 goals market is the one that contains some solid value. To see 3 or more goals for 2.07 is good enough for me, so this will be my final pick.
Here are the prices that most of you would like to know.
Colombia had a bad start in this World Cup and lost 2-1 to Japan. However, James was injured, and the side went down to 10 men in the 3rd minute. This is why I expected more against Poland, and they delivered.
The 3-0 was a testimony to both the defensive resilience and the deadly attack of Colombia. The team stood firm in the periods when Poland had more of the ball and punished every mistake at the other end.
Senegal looks way more potent than the European side and could be a much bigger threat, though. The speedy and strong forwards could cause Colombia trouble, especially if the likes of Davinson Sanchez perform the way they did in the first game against Japan.
Still, the Colombian team has much better players in the middle of the park, and I expect them to control the tempo. On top of that, the Senegal defense is hardly perfect, so the likes of James, Cuadrado, and Falcao should have some opportunities.
It’s worth noting that whatever happens, one of the teams will be back against the wall in the second half. This opens up the opportunity for plenty of action.
I don’t have any doubts which team is better. Colombia certainly is the favorite here, as the side is more flexible and has the better players overall. On top of that, the South Americans will be chasing the victory, so the price of 1.85 seems solid.
This is my main pick, but there’s another I like. All games in this group were over 2.5 goals so far, and there’s a reason for that. The attacking side of each nation prevails, so the odds of 2.00 are also worth a shot.
Next in line is the BetVictor Million Pound Bet. I believe Colombia and Senegal will score some goals, so this is my selection.
Colombia to Win 3-1 James Rodriguez to Score 1+ Goals Both Teams Over 2.5 Cards Senegal Under 2.5 Corners Sadio Mane to Score 1+ Goals Colombia Over 7.5 CornersI can easily see Colombia scoring 3 and James finding the net at least once. Also, I think it’s time for Sadio Mane to finish a fast attack in his typical fashion, as he has only one fluky goal so far.
Also, I expect some tough tackles, plenty of corners for Colombia, and not so many of them for the counter-attacking Senegal.
I’m really confident that Colombia will have a role to play in this soccer World Cup, but that might not be the case. Also, I expect Poland to finally show some of the quality that this squad certainly has.
It’s hard to predict what will happen at the end, though, as this is one of the closest groups of the World Cup.
Good luck!
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