We’ve got one more week until the Open Championship gets underway. While some golf fans are already looking forward to Carnoustie, I’ve been busy scouring the betting sheets across the top online betting sites looking at the John Deere Classic.
The closer I looked, the more value I spotted.
I see some matchups that are catching my eye, and the Bovada sportsbook even appears to have dropped the ball on pricing one of the “lesser-known” players.
If you know me, you know I salivate over locating the discrepancies, and I love targeting guys who are in peak form.
Check out what I found this week because I like our chances of turning a profit!
Hear me out on this one, folks.
On one hand, Nick Watney has 5 victories on the PGA Tour, including a World Golf Championship. He’s played on a President’s Cup team, and most golf fans recognize the 37-year-old former Fresno State Bulldog.
Then you have Joel Dahmen. Some of you may be scratching your head, saying, “Who the heck is Joel Dahmen?” Allow me to fill you in.
The 30-year-old native of Washington is in the midst of making 10 of his last 12 cuts, including a 23rd and a 5th over the past two weeks. He clocks in at 22nd on the PGA Tour in total driving, and his first-round scoring average of 69.33 is top-10 on tour.
Dahmen recently made headlines when he accused his playing partner of cheating, and I think it lit a fire in his belly. TPC Deere Run sets up well for Joel’s strengths as a premium ball striker, and I think he continues his impressive form.
Meanwhile, Watney has certainly shown flashes of good golf in 2018, but over his last 5 events, he’s only finished better than 57th once.
The fact that the much lesser-known commodity is the favorite in this matchup should tell you all you need to know.
Look for Dahmen to have a good week, while Watney is still searching to find a swing thought that clicks.
This is a perfect example of what I feel is a “mispriced matchup” simply due to the popularity and awareness that the typical fan has of these two players. Everyone knows who Bill Haas is, as the Wake Forest alum has won 6 times on the PGA Tour and has played on 3 winning Presidents Cup teams.
Not everyone is familiar with Abraham Ancer, the 5’7”, 155-pound 27-year-old from McAllen, Texas.
Bill Haas is coming off an MC-T-71st-MC over his last 3 weeks. Also worth noting, this will be the 5th consecutive week in competition for Haas, who is still trying to make up ground after missing time in February and March.
On the flip side, Abraham Ancer missed the cut by one at the Travelers Championship but finished 4th and 47th the past two weeks. The former Oklahoma Sooner golfer is quietly putting together a respectable season as he enters the week 93rd in the FedEx Cup standings.
He has the ability to go super low, as he recently showed with his Saturday 62 at the Quicken Loans. This is a positive, considering that it’ll take around 20 under par to win the John Deere Classic this week.
I personally think that Ancer should be a -120 favorite here, so when I see him lurking at +105, I’m jumping all over it.
When you compare the price of this matchup to the odds these players have of winning and finishing inside the top 5 and top 10, you’ll notice a big discrepancy. Take a look.
| Joaquin Niemann | +1600 | +333 | +165 |
| Ryan Moore | +1800 | +350 | +175 |
It seems to me that the casino operators at Bovada.lv seem to think that Niemann has the slight edge. So why on Earth is Moore -130 and Niemann is even money?
That was the same question I was asking myself, and it’s why this bet is screaming out at me. I have nothing against Ryan Moore, and in fact, I root for the guy (like myself, Ryan resides in Las Vegas). He has a tidy golf game, and the course this week should fit Moore’s eye famously.
But let me clue you men and women in on something. This Joaquin Niemann kid isn’t just a flash in the pan who is playing really well right now.
The 19-year-old Chilean golfer has already amassed four top 10s in just eight starts and is going to be a force to be reckoned with for a long, long time.
The dude hits it crazy-long for someone who is about 150 pounds dripping wet, and he can get red-hot with the flat-stick.
I’m not in love with betting against Ryan Moore on a setup like TPC Deere Run, but it’s awfully hard to ignore the value that Bovada.lv has presented us with.
Both men have four top 10s this season, with Niemann getting it done in half as many starts. Moore is consistent and won’t make many mistakes, but Joaquin is on the verge of superstardom.
I’m not sure why someone ahead of Moore on the entire betting sheet is the underdog in this matchup, but my job isn’t to question the motives of the sportsbooks.
My job is to identify the value and take advantage.
You better take Norman Xiong at +3000 to finish inside the top 10 at the John Deere this week, because I can almost certainly promise you won’t find him at this high of a number for very long.
Sportsbook.ag did their homework, as they have the 19-year-old superstar-in-the-making listed at +1150 for this same bet. That’s a far cry from the outrageously mispriced +3000 figure that Bovada.lv is leaving their nose open with this week.
Xiong just turned pro after he completed his sophomore season at the University Oregon, where he was an absolute standout for Casey Marin and the Ducks. Norman Xiong’s journey towards professional golf has been a combination of hard work and determination, and now it’s time for the world to see how talented this kid is.
His club-head speed is off the charts, as evidenced by his 336.8-yard average poke off the tee last week in his debut as a professional. Norman missed the cut at the Greenbrier by 1, but his 69-69 was nothing to balk at.
I can pretty much guarantee you that Xiong won’t be +3000 to finish inside the top 10 his next start. I don’t envisage it taking very long for Norman Xiong to be a household name on golf’s biggest stage. He has every shot in the bag, and he has won and dominated at every level he has competed at.
He’s genuine, he works hard, and he doesn’t make excuses. Some people around the golf community think he’s a great pick as an up-and-coming star in years to come.
I’m saying he has his coming-out party sooner rather than later, and it could be as early as this week.
I am telling you right now, don’t take your eyes off this dude. He is going to be special.
You know the drill by now. I scope out the betting sheets each week before the PGA Tournament begins, and I try my best to unlock value.
I’m not trying to be bold, nor am I trying to make any friends or enemies. I am simply doing my homework and trying to place wagers that have a high likelihood of paying off.
This week, it was 3 matchups and a top-10 bet that piqued my interest.
Who knows where the value will be next week for the British Open, but I’ll be posting my thoughts here in time for you to find out!
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