The 2018 NFL season is charging at sports bettors at ramming speed. Due to the overwhelming amount of coach hyperbole and beat writer hype, it truly can’t come soon enough.
I’m admittedly glad it’s not here yet, though.
That gives the sports betting community time to digest all of the offseason moves and chatter, as well as really hone in on the NFL player prop bets that are worth an investment.
Converting player prop bets can often be a task easier said than done. You’re not just betting on something; you’re projecting it and effectively predicting that it will happen.
Aaron Rodgers, for instance, enters the 2018 NFL regular season as the odds-on favorite to take home league MVP honors. That’s a tall order considering the competition he’s facing.
I personally don’t hate his +600 price tag at SportsBetting.ag, but you’re basically betting A-Rod will be the best player in the NFL in 2018. He can’t just stay healthy (he wasn’t able to do so in 2017). He can’t just be decent. He can’t even just be great.
Rodgers needs to do all that and be the very best at his position. On top of that, he needs to hope no running backs, receivers, or defensive players have out-of-this-world seasons. Oh, and if his win is true to past NFL MVP form, his Green Bay Packers probably need to be pretty good as well.
Again, I wouldn’t mind betting on all of that happening. His price is nice, he seems like he’s ready to hop onto a revenge tour, and the Packers, by all accounts, are supposed to be good.
I need to point out that it’s not easy to project these bets. There are so many factors to consider and so much uncertainty that it’s difficult to decide if there’s any real value.
Of course, while that’s true, these types of wagers sure can be a lot of fun. They can offer nice returns, too. If you’re correct at the end of the year, you could win a good amount of money. That Rodgers MVP bet, for instance, brings back $600 for every $100 you put down at your favorite NFL betting sites.
I feel like I’ve already gone over Aaron Rodgers enough here (he’s probably winning), while a previous post of the 2018 NFL MVP odds covers it ad nauseam.
Instead of focusing on NFL MVP betting this year, here’s a look at six of my favorite 2018 NFL player prop bets that could be worth wagering on.
Most NFL betting sites offer this prop bet, which forces you to wonder which coach will be handed a pink slip first this season.
This prop at SportsBetting.ag is one of my favorites online, as it doesn’t demand you answer which coach will be fired first during the season. That may end up being the same answer either way, but a lot of the time, teams will wait until the end of the year to make some rash decisions.
I doubt that happens in 2018, especially since Browns head coach Hue Jackson (+275) is on such thin ice.
Truly, it is mind-boggling that he still has a job after a 1-31 stretch over his first two seasons running the show in Cleveland.
There are other candidates that stand out or offer appealing odds, but Jackson is the favorite for a reason.
Cleveland even went way out of their way to upgrade his roster, so if he doesn’t yield promising returns early in 2018, he’s absolutely at risk of being fired in-season.
Betting on the league MVP and who will put up the most passing yardage very well could go together in 2018.
That was the case in 2017, when Tom Brady won league MVP and also paced the NFL in yards through the air.
Brady is tied for the lead in odds (+400) with Saints passer Drew Brees, and both of these guys are viable options.
But keep in mind that Brady lost two key receivers this offseason (plus Julian Edelman is serving a four-game ban to start the year) and Brees runs a more run-balanced offense in New Orleans these days.
Am I saying for sure that Brady or Brees can’t lead the league in passing yardage? Absolutely not, but I do prefer a little more upside elsewhere.
The aforementioned Aaron Rodgers (and my MVP favorite) is a real threat with his +1000 odds, while Philip Rivers (+700) is a sneaky wager, seeing as he’s always putting up big yardage.
I don’t think you can completely ignore Deshaun Watson (+4000), Andrew Luck (+3300), Matthew Stafford (+1200), Matt Ryan (+1200) or even Kirk Cousins (+2000), either.
To be honest, this prop is wide open. However, I think Rodgers (+1000) offers the best combination of value and upside.
If you notice a trend here, you’re right. SportsBetting.ag and other websites are offering NFL player prop bets dealing with year-long milestones, and one of the more popular wagers deals with yardage totals.
You’re not betting on an over/under here, of course. Instead, you’re betting on which wide receiver will lead the league in receiving yardage when the season is up.
The smart bet figures to be Antonio Brown (+250). He’s the understandable favorite after leading the NFL in receiving yardage in 2017, while he’s done that or finished inside the top-six every year since 2013.
I’m pretty locked onto Brown here, while I think it’s pretty cool that you get a +250 price tag for something that seems pretty obvious.
Not only is Brown a target hound and quite arguably the best receiver in the game right now, but his role could feasibly increase this year. That sounds crazy, I know, but Martavis Bryant got traded this offseason, and star running back Le’Veon Bell has been griping about his contract.
Of course, I’m no stranger to flier bets when it comes to NFL prop bets. Consider Julio Jones (+400), DeAndre Hopkins (+900), and Odell Beckham Jr. (+1000) before finalizing your preseason NFL wagers.
Oh, and in an effort to avoid redundancy, I’ll stop the “player yardage betting” talk here. I do like David Johnson (+1000) as an elite value for the rushing yardage leader prop, however.
The nice thing about some of these other NFL player prop bets is that there is some history to lean on.
You know precisely how good these players are, what kind of numbers they’ve put up in the past, and the systems they operate out of.
I still want to see if I can make money by betting on the 2018 NFL Rookie of the Year, but it’s admittedly a wager that lacks a lot of reliable information.
That being said, if you keep tabs on college football, the NFL Draft, and track pro football throughout the offseason, you really should have a solid grasp of who the top Rookie of the Year contenders are.
To me, the following players really stand out for 2018.
I’m leaving out a few options here, and I’m sure there are a few Rookie of the Year sleepers to consider, but if you want logical plays, this is where you should start.
Barkley is the sensible favorite. You’re not getting crazy return based on his +140 price, but he was a top-three pick, and I don’t imagine the Giants hold him back.
New York was in desperate need of a jolt to a pretty lethargic rushing attack, while Barkley comes off as a generational talent.
If I have to lay a ton of cash, Barkley is the pick, and it’s not particularly close.
I’m personally not willing to invest a ton of cash in Browns or Jets players winning much of anything, but quarterbacks are always a threat, and you can’t completely sidestep Mayfield or Darnold. Heck, even Josh Rosen (+900) deserves a blurb.
As for the rest of the options, the guy that really jumps out at me is Guice.
The LSU product was a beast in college, and early signs suggest he could be the cure to what ails Washington’s shaky running game. I am a believer in his talent, and considering the first-round prospect fell into round two, he’s likely coming into 2018 with a big chip on his shoulder.
Guice has the talent to succeed immediately, and I think the Redskins let him try to be the best rookie running back in the NFC East.
It’s not the popular pick, but after further review, I love Guice to win this thing.
There are a lot of NFL player prop bets in the over/under category to think about going into 2018.
I don’t want to weigh down this post going over every single one, but I do want to point to a few that scream value to me.
To be clear, very few of these NFL player total wagers offer elite value. They usually offer lines in the -105 to -120 range, at best. The times sports betting sites hand you +100 odds or greater, take that as a telling sign that you’re about to get caught in a trap.
I don’t think there is much risk rolling with this Christian McCaffrey prop bet, though.
Carolina is pretty committed to using McCaffrey as a receiver, but he visibly bulked up this offseason in preparation to handle a bigger workload as a runner. He was a dominant feature back at Stanford, too, so there’s a strong argument he can handle far more rushing work than he saw as a rookie.
Right now, the over/under for his rushing yardage isn’t even too ridiculous, and the value is the same no matter where you lean.
Unless you’re talking about Sam Bradford or a guy facing serious competition at his position, I don’t like to make wagers by projecting how many games a player will suit up for.
McCaffrey is a running back, so barring a catastrophic injury, it’s fair to assume he’ll play 12+ games even if he gets nicked up a bit.
That should be plenty to hit the over here.
One reason is that the workload has to increase. The Panthers drafted this guy to be a big part of their offense, and after flashing elite ability at times in his rookie year, he deserves more work to come his way.
I also am not scared off by the addition of veteran rusher C.J. Anderson. He might eat into some of the early down work, but this is a guy who has never managed to stay healthy.
One way or another, McCaffrey is looking at a bigger role, and in his first season as a pro, he rushed for 435 yards. Upping that by 200 yards isn’t exactly nothing, but for a talented player who should demand more touches, I think it’s well within reach.
This is a really weird prop bet, as Jimmy G is being hyped up at an insane rate, and his yardage wager just might take the cake.
I get that the guy was awesome to close out the 2017 season, and the Niners just paid him a ton of cash, but he lacks experience and still needs to prove himself.
Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system is great and certainly can give way to big seasons, but this over/under feels a bit rich. Take a look for yourself.
Is Garoppolo good and probably the answer the 49ers paid him to be? Probably, yeah. Should he blow up with a big statistical season that potentially helps turn San Francisco into playoff contenders? I guess he could.
Nothing is guaranteed here, however. Do we even know if Jimmy G can hold up for a full 16-game season from a health perspective? Even if he does, are we sure he has the weapons needed to put up numbers like this?
If you answer yes to either of those questions, you still need to come to terms with Jimmy G putting up 4,400 passing yards in his first full season as a starting quarterback.
It’s just asking a lot, and I like the +100 value to bet against this gaudy number.
There are a lot more NFL wagers concerning players, but I wanted to take a second to focus on a handful that I felt could convert and also offer elite betting value.
Again, there are more where these come from, and while SportsBetting.ag is easily one of the top NFL betting sites to use, feel free to explore the web to find better props and odds.
You can keep coming back here to check for updated breakdowns on odds as well, but for now, I’ll send you off with these six. Happy betting, and enjoy the 2018 NFL season.
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