The English Premier League opening weekend is now behind us, and I’m satisfied with my betting picks. The over 2.5 goals on the game between Wolves and Everton came out easy, with the match ending 2-2.
It was looking good in the other match, too, as I had Man United and Leicester to stay under 2.5 goals. Unfortunately, two late goals screwed that bet, and the game ended 2-1. Still, I’m happy with my analysis, and these things happen. You can’t win them all.
It’s time to regroup and take a look at the opportunities we will have this weekend. I watched a lot of the games and checked extended highlights for the rest, so I feel confident that I have a better understanding of all the teams.
Of course, it’s only one match, and it’s still early days, so I would once again recommend a rather careful approach at this point. Don’t take too many risks with your bankroll, as the season is just starting, and the situation is dynamic.
Let’s take a look at some of the valuable betting markets this week.
Here at the most popular betting odds related to this EPL match.
Everton is only the slight favorite here, and this is baffling to me. I feel the side is way better than Southampton. If you add the home advantage, the price for the Toffees should probably closer to the 1.75 mark, but more about that below.
I agree with the over/under goals market, though. I don’t expect much threat from Southampton up front, and they will try their best to keep a clean sheet.
Let’s take a closer look at the two sides.
I have high expectations for Everton’s season, and I certainly like the squad. The club managed to attract a bunch of quality players such as Richarlison, Yerry Mina, Lucas Digne, Andre Gomes, and Kurt Zouma. They should strengthen the side all over the pitch.
We already saw the impact of Richarlison, who was absolutely brilliant against Wolves and scored the first brace of his career. His first goal might’ve been a bit lucky, but the second was a lethal finish that highlighted the potential of the Brazilian.
The whole Everton side, bar Phil Jagielka, was impressive. The Toffees looked more dangerous despite playing with 10 men the whole second half and were closer to the three points. They should’ve scored a couple more goals after missing golden opportunities at the counter.
This Everton side is attacking with a lot of purpose and has a solid variety up front.
On the right, they have the fast and explosive Walcott, who’s closer to what you would call a typical winger. At the same time, Richarlison’s creativity on the left will cause all sorts of trouble for many teams in the EPL.
The likes of Schneiderlin and Gueye provide a lot of protection for the defense and allow the full-backs Coleman and Baines to join the attacks on a regular basis. On top of that, we didn’t even manage to see what Sigurdsson can do, as the Icelander was sacrificed after Jagielka was sent off.
It’s an exciting Everton team, and many of the new signings have yet to find their place. Some of them will have such an opportunity because of the suspension of Jagielka. I expect Kurt Zouma to start, but Yerry Mina could be part of the lineup as well. In fact, I won’t be too surprised if both new guys are in the team.
The other important team news is related to Richarlison. Despite some injury concerns from the opening day, the Brazilian will be fit to face Southampton. That’s great news for the manager, Marco Silva.
The only possible concern against the Saints would be the opportunity to play two center backs together for the first time. Outside of that, Everton should feel comfortable about this game.
After years of selling their best players and losing great managers, it seems that the Saints are finally paying the price. They almost got relegated last season, and if the new signings don’t work well, they could be in trouble once again.
Southampton lost the creative presence of Dusan Tadic in the summer, but Mark Hughes signed a couple of players that could fill that gap. The big problem is that they don’t have experience in the EPL, which could be an issue.
For the first 60-70 minutes of their match last week, the Saints struggled to create any chances, and Burnley was the better side on the pitch.
Sure, there was a final push that brought a couple of opportunities, but the team lacked imagination and ideas on how to break the opposition.
And this was a Burnley team that’s not particularly good away from home. Everton will be a much tougher opponent, especially with the crowd behind the Toffees.
I have no doubts that Everton is the better team and should dominate the majority of the game. The side from Liverpool has the better squad and showed glimpses of the season ahead in the opener against Wolves.
The Toffees have some great players up front and should be able to create plenty of chances against Southampton. I expect them to find the net more than once and probably manage to keep a clean sheet.
If I have to go for a correct score prediction, it would be 2-0 for Everton. This is the reason I love the odds of 2.00 for the home side, and this is my pick for the game. For the more adventurous among you, I would say that even Everton -1 European Handicap is not too far-fetched.
The price for that surpasses the 3.50 mark on most gambling sites, and I think Everton is good enough to cover this line.
Let’s see what the most popular betting markets for this EPL clash look like.
According to the bookies, this game is really close. I’m not quite sure where this is coming from, as Burnley has been one of the strongest sides at home for the past two seasons.
They beat Watford twice last season and are the masters of winning against teams of such a caliber in front of their home crowd. I expect more of the same from Sean Dyche and his boys in this campaign, so the price for the home win is way higher than I expected.
Still, I do agree with the bookies when it comes to the over/under line. The game should be rather tight, and I don’t think we will see that many chances, especially in favor of Watford. This is why a low-scoring match is certainly on the cards.
But let’s take a deeper look at each of the two sides.
Burnley managed to exceed expectations and finish in 7th place last season, which was an astonishing achievement. The club doesn’t have the financial power of many other teams, but it was in the fight for 6th at some point of the season.
The main reasons behind this success were the discipline and work ethic installed by the manager, Sean Dyche. Burnley’s tactics revolved around a solid defense and the ability to endanger the opponent in various ways, including long balls and set pieces.
It wasn’t always pretty, but it worked wonders for the team, who was one of the best home sides in the division in 2016-2017 and improved a lot away too in the next year.
I see no reason for a change, as Sean Dyche managed to keep his squad intact and even added a couple of signings. They are not as bombastic as what some of the other teams added, but that’s simply not Burnley style.
A quick look at the opening 0-0 draw against Southampton convinced me that the team will once again have a strong defense. Burnley was the better side for large parts of the match. There were a couple of good chances in the first half when the team should’ve been ahead.
Burnley got a bit tired later on, which allowed the Saints to dominate the closing stages, but it’s still early in the season, so I guess that kind of inconsistency will happen.
As for Watford, many will be encouraged by the start of the season. The side beat Brighton 2-0 at home and looked solid throughout the game. However, their opponent was one of the worst away teams last season, and this has hardly changed.
I wouldn’t read too much into this match, as Burnley is a much stronger side, especially on home turf. They will be able to expose the shaky Watford defense, while the attack is rather inconsistent. The team is unable to muster many chances against stronger defenses, and this was the reason Watford won only one of the last nine games in the 2017-2018 campaign.
Most of the new players signed by Watford don’t have experience in England, so I don’t expect much from them, at least at the start of the season.
I feel that Watford will once again struggle away from home and won’t be able to find enough consistency. Sure, the side will be able to beat the likes of Brighton in front of their own crowd, but teams like Burnley will be an entirely different story.
By this point, you probably know what my betting pick will be. I feel that the price for Burnley to win this match provides great value, so I’m on it. BetOnline offers 2.31, which is exceptional, and you could probably even find higher odds, depending on your country.
Either way, a result like 1-0 or 2-0 in favor of Burnley seems the logical choice here. The home side should have a defense capable of keeping a clean sheet, while Watford is shaky at the back, so Burnley should be able to score.
I’ve got to say there are two other EPL matches that caught my attention, but I was unable to find good value. For a start, the under 2.5 goals in the Brighton home clash against Manchester United is priced at 1.70.
I don’t see many goals in this match, and if the odds were a fraction higher, I would’ve gone for it. We saw that United is far from its best, while Brighton will probably struggle to find the net on a regular basis this year.
The other match that has some potential is between West Ham and Bournemouth. I can see some goals scored by both teams, but the price of 1.90 is probably about right, so I will pass for now.
This week, I decided to bet on the home advantage of two teams that will have a solid season, in my opinion. Let’s hope they will be able to do the job, as the prices of both games are pretty juicy.
What do you think about the forthcoming weekend? Do you like my picks, or do you have other suggestions of your own? Feel free to share them in the comments section below.
Good luck!
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