Generally, I wait until Saturday to get my “college football fix.” I bet the games mid-week when I see lines I like, and then Saturdays are about seeing how everything pans out.
And I plan on discussing some matchups taking place this Saturday that I really think are worth wagering, so that part won’t change.
What’s different this week is that there is actually a contest on Friday night that I think is so egregiously mispriced, I couldn’t help but jump all over it.
I don’t like to keep any secrets. When I see a game I think I can take advantage of, I have no qualms about sharing my perspective.
It’s up to you what you end up doing with your money – I’m just here to offer my two cents!
I alluded to a game tomorrow night that I’m targeting with great interest. When I first saw the line for the Memphis/SMU game, I was a bit perplexed.
The more I started digging, the more I can’t seem to wrap my head around why Vegas has made the Tigers an 8.5- to 9-point favorite, depending on which of the top college football sites you are active on.
Because as I comb through the data, I am thinking that SMU actually has a shot to win this game.
Memphis is 6-4 on the year, but let’s diagnose what has truly happened.
The Tigers haven’t beaten a team that is any good, and I mean that. Seriously, look at this table below.
| Mercer | 5-5 |
| Georgia State | 2-8 |
| South Alabama | 2-8 |
| UCONN | 1-9 |
| East Carolina | 2-7 |
| Tulsa | 2-8 |
We’re talking about opponents with a combined 14-45 mark, and none of them have a winning record!
And the Mike Norvell-led program has struggled mightily when playing away from Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. They finally got their first road win of the year on November 3rd at East Carolina, but let’s be real.
The Pirates are 2-7 and 0-6 in conference play.
In the Tigers’ other three games away from their home stadium, they lost to Navy, got whooped by Tulane, and were blown out at Missouri. I know Memphis is bowl-eligible, but they really haven’t done anything worth noting all season long.
Now, while SMU is 5-5 on paper, they are actually 4-2 in conference play and atop the American West standings. They’ve already faced a gauntlet of tough teams. They lost to TCU when the Horned Frogs were ranked 16th in the country, and they fell on the road to a really gifted Michigan Wolverines squad.
They lost at home to undefeated UCF and took the 9-1 Cincinnati Bearcats to overtime. So as you can see, their losses aren’t really that bad. This team beat Houston by two touchdowns and is coming off a 62-point outburst against Connecticut.
This game will be nationally televised on ESPN on Friday night for all of the college football world to see, and I just have a difficult time gauging why SMU is getting 9 points in their own building.
I’m in the camp of believers who don’t think Notre Dame is as good as advertised. I understand they are undefeated, but wins against Stanford and Florida State don’t mean as much given the struggles the Cardinal and Seminoles have endured.
The Fighting Irish have a clear path to the College Football Playoff, so long as they end the season beating the Orange and the Trojans. Which brings me to their test this Saturday afternoon against Syracuse.
The game will be played at Yankee Stadium, meaning we should see plenty of fans on both sides. The Orange has been one of the pleasant surprises in college football so far this season, as Dino Babers led this team to a disappointing 8-16 record through his first two seasons at the helm.
But now it’s 2018.
The ’Cuse have played tremendously all season long, arriving here with an 8-2 mark and ranked 12th in the nation. The Orange gave Clemson all they could handle, losing by just 4 points on Clemson’s home turf. Other than a hard-fought overtime loss at Pittsburgh the following week, this team has been terrific.
Eric Dungey is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, and Moe Neal is electric out of the backfield. I’m not sure this offense has enough to beat Notre Dame, but I do think they have enough weapons to at least hang around and contend.
Brian Kelly said it’s “pretty clear” that Ian Book will play in this game, meaning the Irish will get their starting QB back after he missed last week’s win over FSU with an upper-body injury. That is a good thing for fans in South Bend, but it doesn’t mean this game will be a walk in the park.
The Orange are getting 10.5 points on a neutral site, and we only have to lay -108 on SportsBetting.ag. I see value in this wager, so I’ll be rooting for Notre Dame to get knocked off their pedestal!
UNLV has been a bad football team all season long. They finally picked up a nice road win at San Diego State this past weekend, so perhaps some people have faith that the Rebels can perform well again on the road.
But not me.
As an SDSU alum, I can assure you that the Aztecs have don’t have as solid of a team as they’ve had in years past, and they were an absolute mess last Saturday at SDCCU Stadium.
But as it stands, the Rebels picked up the victory and made bettors who sided with them very happy in the process.
Now let’s examine the Rainbow Warriors.
Hawaii got off to a fast 6-1 start, but now they’ve hit a mighty roadblock. Losers of four straight games, Nick Rolovich’s squad has just stopped playing defense, as they’re giving up a whopping 48.8 points per game during their four-game skid.
But when I tell you who the Rainbow Warriors’ past four opponents were, perhaps I can cushion the blow.
Losing on the road to BYU and Fresno State was to be expected. Nevada and Utah State are extremely talented squads that have beaten a lot of quality teams.
I point this out to shed light that these last four losses aren’t really as bad as they appear to someone who doesn’t watch football on the west coast.
But now, Hawaii gets the suspect UNLV Rebels on their home field with a chance to solidify a winning record on the season.
The team in Sin City is giving up 458 yards per game and is allowing the opposition to score a substantial 38.3 points per game. I’m not going to sit here and pretend that Hawaii’s defense is much better, but I can confidently say this.
Rainbow Warriors QB Cole McDonald will have no trouble slinging the ball around the field against UNLV. Hawaii has no business hanging up anything less than 40 points in this specific scenario.
Despite UNLV winning away from home last weekend, they have been utterly atrocious on the road besides that.
I mean, UNLV let the 1-7 San Jose State Spartans put up 50 points in a 13-point loss in northern California. I’d venture to predict that getting a win at Hawaii is a lot tougher than getting a win at San Jose, so I’m looking for the Rainbow Warriors to win this game fairly convincingly.
Here’s a clash between a couple of SEC teams who are both looking for conference win #2 on the season. Ole Miss might be 5-5 on the year, but a 4-point win against the putrid Razorbacks on October 13th was actually the last time this team won a football game of any kind.
Ole Miss head coach Matt Luke has tons of qualified individuals on his roster, but he’d be the first guy to tell you that the Rebels haven’t been as competitive in SEC games as they would have liked. Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has done his part, as the senior QB leads the Southeastern Conference in passing yards by a wide margin.
A.J. Brown is the only SEC WR over 1,000 yards, and Scottie Phillips is averaging 6.2 yards per carry.
So why haven’t the Rebels been better?
It’s because when push comes to shove, they just haven’t been able to get stops when they need them. Ole Miss has only actually played three true road games in 2018, and their fourth one won’t be an easy task.
The Vanderbilt Commodores have fallen off the radar and are now 4-6 overall, but this team should be more than battle-tested for Saturday’s game at Vanderbilt Stadium. Talk about a brutal stretch of games; it’s no shocker that Vandy has dropped four of their last five.
They played at Georgia, who was ranked second in the country at the time, before dropping to 14th-ranked Florida. The other two losses came on the road against Kentucky and Missouri, so it isn’t like the Commodores are losing games to a bunch of “nobodies.”
A home game against a dubious Rebels bunch is exactly what Derek Mason and his men need to get back in the picture.
Because a win on Saturday means Vandy can become bowl-eligible with another home victory against Tennessee two days after Thanksgiving. With that much to play for and their home crowd behind them, I think Vandy gets it done against Ole Miss with at least a few points to spare.
Sundays are set aside for the NFL. Saturdays are designed for watching college football.
But if you wait until you wake up on Saturday morning to start betting and watching games, you will have missed out on a big opportunity that’s available on Friday evening.
Usually, I recommend betting games that appear on the massive Saturday slate. And I did that here.
But I wasn’t about to skip out on grabbing SMU and the 9 points tomorrow night. You might not want to, either!
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