Тhe EPL table after matchweek 12 reveals a big trend – the big boys are pulling away.
Liverpool, Chelsea, and City are setting the pace with their impressive records so far.
Arsenal has been better against the lesser teams. Their only blunders are draws against Crystal Palace and Wolves. Both games could have easily been lost in previous seasons, but the Gunners look sharper this time around.
They did lose their opening two fixtures, but those were against Man City and Chelsea. Both were very close encounters, so we cannot fault the newly-arrived Unai Emery too much.
In this post, I’m going to dive into how the English Premier League teams are performing so far. I’ll also look at some data from previous seasons to see what we can learn about how the rest of this season might pan out.
As most people expected, City is sitting at the top of the table. Despite a minor setback against Wolverhampton, Pep’s men are undefeated and still look like the team to beat.
Liverpool is one of the top teams on the rise. They too have not registered a loss yet and have only dropped points in draws against rivals City, Chelsea, and Arsenal.
Somewhat surprisingly to me, Maurizio Sarri’s career in England has started superbly. Chelsea is in third place with 28 points, just four off the top spot.
Eden Hazard is back to his best, and the new recruit Jorginho is proving his worth as the current league leader in successful passes.
Forgotten man Ross Barkley has also improved tremendously under his new manager. The young English talent has already racked up three goals and three assists, which is Barkley’s best return since his Everton days.
Tottenham, despite not looking at their best lately, is also contesting the top positions. They have nine wins out of 12, and two of their three losses came from City and Liverpool.
The other was a narrow defeat away to high-flying Watford.
Speaking of the Hornets, they are proving to be a big surprise package along with Bournemouth. Both teams had already convinced us that they are good enough for the Prem, but this season has been something else.
They have both managed a whopping 20 points in their first 12 games. This brings them level with Manchester United and a point ahead of one of this summer’s big spenders, Everton.
Undoubtedly, it’s a huge accomplishment for managers Eddie Howe and Javi Garcia.
Burnley finished seventh last year with 54 points, only seven less than Arsenal. I expect that Bournemouth and Watford will be aiming for this kind of finish.
Pep’s City showed no mercy last season as they rolled over lesser teams in emphatic fashion. Liverpool is beginning to learn how to grind 1 – 0 wins, and Chelsea is proving very hard to beat.
When you add Arsenal’s progress under Emery and Tottenham’s consistency, things are not looking good for the minnows.
Of course, there is always one exception to the rule. Wolves have been able to get points against United, Arsenal, and City so far.
A battling display nearly saw them claw back a two-goal deficit against Tottenham, but it wasn’t to be.
Overall, it looks like it is becoming increasingly difficult for smaller teams to challenge the big boys.
Their only solace this season has been a struggling Manchester United side. Jose’s team recorded defeats against Brighton and West Ham, letting in six goals in the process.
This gap in quality has left lesser clubs to battle it out with their closest competitors. And it has been a bloodbath so far.
Seven teams at the bottom are within four points of each other, and they will be the prime candidates for dropping out of the Prem.
Burnley and Newcastle look to be a cut above the rest and will probably steady their ships at some point.
However, clubs such as Southampton, Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Fulham are in big trouble.
The Cottagers have already sacked Slavisa Jokanovic and appointed Claudio Ranieri to try and save their season after a run of six straight defeats.
The Saints, Eagles, and Terries are struggling for goals, and Cardiff’s defense is the second-worst so far.
The international break in November is a time for owners to reflect on their team’s performances, so I wouldn’t be surprised if a manager from these three clubs follows Jokanovic into unemployment.
So, things are looking exciting at the top and a bit grim at the bottom. But are twelve games really enough to make conclusions on what lies ahead?
Let’s take a look at the last five seasons and how things looked at this point and in the end.
| 1 | Manchester City | 34 |
| 2 | Manchester United | 26 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 25 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 23 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 22 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 22 |
| 1 | Manchester City | 100 |
| 2 | Manchester United | 81 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 77 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 75 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 70 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 63 |
| 18 | West Ham United | 9 |
| 19 | Swansea City | 8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 5 |
| 18 | Swansea City | 33 |
| 19 | Stoke City | 33 |
| 20 | West Brom Albion | 31 |
City ran out clear winners in this one, clinching the title with a staggering 19-point lead. West Ham had a shaky start but managed to ultimately beat the drop and ended up in 13th place.
The big losers were established Prem teams West Brom, Stoke, and Swansea, who didn’t even get close to the 40-point mark.
| 1 | Chelsea | 28 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 27 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 27 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 25 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 24 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 19 |
| 1 | Chelsea | 93 |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur | 86 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 78 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 76 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 75 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 69 |
| 18 | Hull City | 10 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 8 |
| 20 | Swansea City | 6 |
| 18 | Hull City | 34 |
| 19 | Middlesbrough | 28 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 24 |
Antonio Conte took advantage of Chelsea not participating in the Champions League and led the team to the title. A record 13 successive wins contributed heavily to the achievement. The Italian also won three Manager of the Month awards that year.
Despite being at the bottom after matchweek 12, Swansea was able to survive by pulling off a late winning run. Sunderland and Hull were flirting with relegation from the start, and both teams went down.
Arsenal finished the season with five straight wins, but it wasn’t enough for them to clinch a place in the top four.
| 1 | Manchester City | 26 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 26 |
| 3 | Leicester City | 25 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 24 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 21 |
| 6 | West Ham United | 21 |
| 1 | Leicester City | 81 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 71 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 70 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 66 |
| 5 | Manchester United | 66 |
| 6 | Southampton | 63 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 6 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 5 |
| 18 | Newcastle United | 37 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 34 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 17 |
The season that shook the football world! Claudio Ranieri and his players pulled off a miracle and won Leicester a Premier League title. It was by far the biggest surprise in EPL history, and it is very unlikely we will see anything like it again.
Although there was a moment where Tottenham was gaining on the Foxes, they stood firm and finished the season with a 10-point lead. Spurs fell to third place on the last day as they were thumped by already-relegated Newcastle United.
Joining the Magpies in the Championship was also Norwich City and Aston Villa. The Villans only managed 17 points, and their season was ranked among the top ten worst in Premier League history.
| 1 | Chelsea | 32 |
| 2 | Southampton | 26 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 24 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 19 |
| 5 | Newcastle United | 19 |
| 6 | West Ham United | 18 |
| 1 | Chelsea | 87 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 79 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 75 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 70 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 64 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 62 |
| 18 | Leicester City | 10 |
| 19 | Burnley | 10 |
| 20 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 |
| 18 | Hull City | 35 |
| 19 | Burnley | 33 |
| 20 | Queens Park Rangers | 30 |
Jose Mourinho’s last title with Chelsea was clinched in some style. The team only lost three games in the entire season.
The attacking duo of Diego Costa and Eden Hazard proved too hot to handle as they racked up 34 goals between them.
The Belgian also won the coveted Player of the Year award.
Southampton was a big surprise at the start of the season and was sitting in second place after matchweek 12. However, the usual top six occupied the spots at the end, and the Saints only managed to finish seventh.
After being at the bottom for most of the season, Leicester pulled off one of the great escapes in history. The team won 10 points in their last four matches and finished in 14th place.
This was to be a historical survival, as the Foxes went on to win the league next year.
| 1 | Arsenal | 28 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 24 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 24 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 22 |
| 5 | Southampton | 22 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 21 |
| 1 | Manchester City | 86 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 84 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 82 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 79 |
| 5 | Everton | 72 |
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur | 69 |
| 18 | Fulham | 10 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 7 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 |
| 18 | Norwich City | 33 |
| 19 | Fulham | 32 |
| 20 | Cardiff City | 30 |
Arsenal was setting the early pace with some scintillating football. Aaron Ramsey was on top of his game, and it seemed like the new recruit Mesut Özil was the missing ingredient for the Gunners.
People were really starting to believe that this might be their year, but injuries led to a poor run of form, which only got them fourth place in the end.
Liverpool emerged as the main candidate to win after leading the pack for long periods of the season, and Steven Gerrard was already smelling his dream title.
It was a season of unbelievable offensive prowess for the Reds. The front trio of Luis Suarez, Daniel Sturridge, and Sterling scored an amazing 61 Premier League goals. Gerrard added 13 to the already impressive total.
It was a matter of formality, but right at the end, Liverpool lost to Chelsea and drew 3-3 with Crystal Palace after having a three-goal advantage.
Naturally, Manchester City pounced and secured the title by winning all five of their last fixtures.
Norwich, Fulham, and Cardiff City, who were by far the worst teams that season, got relegated.
A lot has happened in those last five years, but the stats clearly show some similar trends.
Most notably, in three of the last five seasons, the team at the top after matchweek 12 has won the title. One exception was 2016 when Leicester won it, but I wouldn’t bet that we will see another anomaly of those proportions anytime soon.
Also, Leicester was just one point away from first place at that time.
When it comes to winning the title, it seems that anything over 28 points in the first 12 games is likely to at least keep you in the race until the end.
The numbers also show that if a team has less than 25 points at the November break, they will most probably not have a great chance of topping the table come May.
Here, the exception is Man City in 2014 when they won it after having only 22 points at that stage. It must be noted that this hasn’t happened in any of the other recent seasons, and it took some big mistakes from Liverpool.
Another trend emerging is that any team that has racked up 23 points in 12 games has qualified for the UEFA competitions.
Let’s turn our attention to the bottom half of the table.
There hasn’t been a case in the last five years in which all of the teams sitting in the relegation zone after 12 matches save themselves.
At least one club, or on some occasions two clubs, inevitably goes down.
Also, having 14 points at this stage is a very good prospect for staying up. No team with such a record has been relegated in the past five seasons.
Naturally, it means that the three unbeaten teams are in a very good position to push for the title. City is currently at the top with 32 points, followed by Liverpool with 30 and Chelsea with 28.
The London Club had the same tally in their title-winning season with Conte and will be looking to replicate that success.
Liverpool looks to be well equipped to deal with small-tier opposition this season and has addressed their big goalkeeper problem by bringing in Alisson.
On the other hand, City is just two points off their record from last year. Let’s not forget that they finished the season with 100 points.
I don’t see Tottenham as a legitimate title contender in these circumstances. Yes, they are at 27 points, but winning the league from such a position requires not only great performances but other teams making enough mistakes.
This did happen for Leicester and City in 2014, but leapfrogging three teams that are unbeaten so far seems like a stretch.
Arsenal is still a work in progress, but there are positive signs from the new manager already. Although 24 points is by no means their best tally after matchweek 12, there is a sense that the team can compete again.
I believe they are a good value to clinch the top four this season and get back into the Champions League.
Going a bit further down the table, we have Bournemouth, Watford, and Manchester United at 20 points.
Even with United’s problems this season, I don’t see the other teams finishing above them. Mourinho has the experience and far better players.
Last year, Burnley had two more points at this stage and finished seventh with 54. This is also the lowest overall tally of Manchester United in the last five years.
In all other seasons, they have managed 60+ points, which I think will be a step too far for both Bournemouth and Watford.
If Everton finds their rhythm, they will be a much bigger threat to Jose and his men. Two years ago, they were again at 19 points after matchweek 12 and finished with 61.
It will probably not be enough for sixth place, but their more experienced players have been in those situations before. If they up their game in the remainder of the season, I can see them improving on their eighth-place position from last year.
The relegation battle this year will probably be one of the most contested ones we’ve seen in recent history.
As I already pointed out, there is an increasing trend of lesser teams not being able to grind out results against better opposition.
This has led to the lowest combined points for the bottom four teams in the last five years. Southampton, Cardiff City, Huddersfield, and Fulham have only 28 points between them.
Let’s look at the relegation odds courtesy of 888sport.
Although Fulham is rock bottom with five points, they are not the favorites to go down, and it isn’t a surprise.
Crystal Palace was in the exact same situation last year. However, the awful start with Frank de Boer was quickly forgotten as Roy Hodgson was able to propel the team to 11th place.
The Cottagers have used the same approach by sacking their manager, and we have to remember they brought in some very experienced and quality players.
Although I don’t think they will have the same success as Palace last season, I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss their chances.
In my view, Huddersfield is the top favorite to go down. They have scored only six goals and have conceded 22. Also, teams have grown accustomed to playing against David Wagner’s hard, defensive tactics.
Defying the odds last year deserves a lot of credit, but the team now is far more negligent at home. Points lost in such games almost always prove fatal.
The interesting bet here is on Southampton. The Saints are sticking with Mark Hughes, at least for now. Indeed, he was able to steer them to safety last season with two late wins in the last five.
However, it must be noted that tensions are high at the club, and actually, Hughes is not doing that good a job. Since his appointment in March this year, he has won only five games.
As I said, in the last five seasons, at least one team sitting in the relegation zone after matchday 12 has failed to beat the drop.
The Saints might not be in the zone technically, but one stat should worry them. They have the lowest number of goals scored after 12 games since Crystal Palace in 2014.
I don’t see them finding their shooting boots anytime soon. The owners are indeed making backroom changes, but their players need revitalizing on the pitch. Otherwise, it might turn into a case of too little too late.
At these odds, it’s hard to pass on the Saints going down this year.
Historical data is never an exact indicator of future outcomes. When betting on sports, though, analyzing past data in the way I’ve just done can definitely be helpful.
There are always things we can learn through in-depth analysis, and I strongly recommend that you put some time into this aspect of your betting if you’re serious about trying to make money.
It’s becoming harder and harder to find value in the betting markets, especially for soccer, so you need to make sure you’re doing everything you can to identify good betting opportunities.
The bottom line is that effective research and analysis can improve your betting results. So, if that’s your goal, make sure you put the effort in. You won’t regret it.
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