The NFL is a crazy place to try to consistently win money when it comes to sports betting. Week three in particular was absolutely nuts.
If you were looking for one blinding example, look no further than the Buffalo Bills marching into Minnesota and laying waste to the Minnesota Vikings.
That 100% takes the cake for week three NFL bets that went completely backwards.
As bad as that was, it wasn’t the only finish to drop the collective jaws of NFL fans around the world.
Green Bay didn’t look good in DC, the Jaguars couldn’t top the Titans at home, the Houston Texans slid to 0-3 against the hapless Giants, and the Saints and Falcons combined for an unsightly 80 points.
Okay, that last one everyone should have seen coming.
I took an early look at the week three betting lines last Sunday, and before Monday Night Football even arrived, had my post out to help bettors make their picks for the week.
Going into week three, I held a respectable 18-12-2 record, going 9-6-1 in each week to start the 2018 NFL betting season. Week three delivered some hiccups, to be sure, but considering some of the insanity that went down, I’ll take a 6-9 record (again, not counting the MNF game yet).
That isn’t to say I’m happy finishing below .500. However, I had some solid moments – specifically calling Cleveland’s first win in almost two full years.
Obviously, last week wasn’t my finest hour, but hopefully, week four will be a little more hospitable to your betting endeavors. Let’s dive into the early week four NFL betting lines over at SportsBetting.ag and see how you may want to wager.
Boy, did the Vikings get embarrassed in week three. Not only did they lose to the lowly Bills, but they did so at home and got absolutely housed.
I can’t believe I backed Minnesota to cover an insane -17 point spread. Now they have to go into LA and take on a Rams squad that has put up 30+ points in three straight contests to open the year.
Maybe they do it again, but I tend to think the Vikings overlooked the Bills, thinking they could coast by them and instead looked ahead to this game.
The Rams are the better team on paper and should win, but both teams will be on a short week. Don’t be shocked if we get a good game and Minny beats this +6.5 point spread.
Dalvin Cook should be back for this one, and Minnesota is better defensively than what they showed on Sunday.
Talk about two teams that you thought would be different going into week four. Miami has somehow stayed perfect, while the Pats have looked nothing like a title contender as they’ve limped through a 1-2 start.
It’s been bad, but Josh Gordon makes his debut this week, and New England returns home after a forgettable two-game road trip.
Tom Brady is more comfortable in this setting, and he gets a new toy to test out down the field. Miami, meanwhile, could still be a fraud with hollow wins over the Titans, Raiders, and Jets.
I’ll roll with an angry Pats team to win easily on their home field.
The Texans are in a really bad spot, as they’re off to an ugly 0-3 start and can’t seem to stop anyone defensively. Now they have to head into Indy to face a very competitive Colts team that is 1-2 but has been in every game thus far.
It’s really hard to send the Texans to a hopeless 0-4 start, but they clearly aren’t as good as everyone thought they’d be. Cue the Bill O’Brien firing talk.
The Bengals gave a valiant effort but dropped to 2-1 with a tough road loss in Carolina, while the same can be said with the Falcons losing a crazy OT shootout at home against the Saints.
These are two solid teams, but the Falcons will be more desperate and on their home field. They’re also more talented, so I have no qualms about backing them in week four.
Unfortunately, this is a very tricky spread, so I’ll just take ATL as a straight-up winner.
The Bills defied all logic with a huge road upset win over the Vikings last week, so it’s impossible to ignore them here. Green Bay, on the other hand, could very easily be 0-3 right now.
The Packers are tough to beat at Lambeau Field in theory, but the reality thus far is that they’re simply not very good. They’re certainly not dominant, which is what they’d have to be to take them at -10.5.
Back the Bills to keep this one interesting.
The Lions shocked everyone with a big 26-10 win over the Pats on Sunday Night Football, and in week four, they’ll try to keep the good times rolling in Big D.
Dallas tends to be the best version of themselves at their home stadium, while the ‘Boys need to step it up to avoid a 1-3 hole.
The spread doesn’t really excite me, so I’ll just back the Cowboys on their home turf. After struggling last week on the road, I’m expecting a dominant effort out of Ezekiel Elliott as Dallas controls this one.
The Jets shocked everyone with a huge 48-17 win over the Lions in week one. Over the past two weeks, however, they’ve looked a lot like the team we all thought they’d be.
Sam Darnold will be good at some point, but trusting him on the road against the Jaguars isn’t something I want to do. This spread is probably asking for trouble, but after getting ousted by Tennessee at home last week, Jacksonville should get amped up to defend their turf in week four.
A healthy return for Leonard Fournette would make the Jags the obvious choice here, so betting on Jacksonville early in the week may be the best way to maximize this NFL betting opportunity.
I don’t know how the Bucs did on MNF in week three, but I do know that the Bears are legit defensively and will be at home. They also have a capable offense that won’t exactly be facing an elite defense.
No matter what Ryan Fitzpatrick does to the Steelers, I’m digging Chicago to nab this one and sit atop the NFC North at 3-1.
Carson Wentz’s return fueled a clutch home win for the Eagles in week three, and now he’ll lead Philly into Tennessee. There, the Eagles will clash with Mike Vrabel and a Titans team that somehow keeps winning with Blaine Gabbert running the show.
Tennessee deserves props for their unlikely 2-1 start, but I can’t buy them in this matchup – or in general. Philly has been very up and down to start the year, but this feels like a game they should take easily.
Arizona has been horrible en route to an 0-3 start, as they’ve given the suddenly inept Sam Bradford too long of a leash and have misused stud rusher David Johnson.
Maybe that all changes with rookie quarterback Josh Rosen (probably) taking over under center in week four, but even at home, he’s got a tall order in dispatching a slightly underrated Seahawks team.
I still trust Russell Wilson way more than Arizona at the moment. The spread might come back to haunt me, so I’ll just take the Seahawks as the victor.
The Baker Mayfield era is officially here, and the former Sooner will get his first start in Oakland against the 0-3 Raiders. He’s already helped the Browns to their first win in almost two calendar years, so everything he does now is pretty much gravy.
Joking aside, Mayfield has a stiffer test than you’d think, seeing as the winless Raiders have actually been pretty competitive. Jon Gruden’s return to the NFL has been spoiled each week, but eventually, he’s going to get a win.
At home in a showdown with the Browns is probably as good a chance as Chucky will get.
Drew Brees has been enfuego to start the year, and now he’ll lead his Saints into New York to battle the G-Men. The Giants did just score a big win over the Texans to keep their season alive, but overall, they have not looked very good in 2018.
The Saints historically have difficulty on the road, but the Giants are overmatched here. This is a tricky spread, however, so I’ll just roll with Brees and company to find a way to get the win.
Much like the Buccaneers, I don’t yet know where the Steelers are at mentally, as I’m pushing this post through before the MNF game is over. Pittsburgh is back home at Heinz Field against a familiar foe in week four, however, so I have to think they’ll be up for this one.
Pittsburgh remains stacked offensively, while the Ravens have proven to be very erratic on both ends of the field. Joe Flacco has been better than expected this year, but it’s oddly enough Baltimore’s defense I find hard to trust.
Spreads go out the window in AFC North clashes (usually), so I’ll just take the Steelers as a straight-up winner in a game they probably need to have.
Early signs indicate that starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will miss the remainder of the 2018 NFL season with a torn ACL. Even if he doesn’t, he’s almost certainly out for week four, and the Niners are going to be big underdogs.
The Chargers have gotten off to another one of their vintage slow starts, but they remain extremely talented. At home in a must-win situation against an inferior opponent, take the Bolts as the straight-up winner the second the lines are released.
The last game on the week four NFL betting docket could be a good one, as the undefeated Chiefs travel to Colorado to battle the hated Broncos.
Denver (2-1) slipped up in a tough one against the Ravens last week, but fundamentally, theyhaveall of the necessary pieces to give KC problems.
It’s been a breeze thus far for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but at some point, he’s going to struggle.
Denver is easily Kansas City’s toughest defensive draw to this point in 2018, and they have the offensive balance to potentially control this game.
I wish the spread was a bit fatter, but I’ll take the Broncos to keep this one close.
Overall, week four is bound to be very interesting in the NFL. Week three was all over the place, and as we move forward, I still think several teams are going to be exposed.
In addition, some teams will be getting pretty desperate to get that first win or avoid a huge hole, so you need to consider shifting your betting biases to match a constantly evolving picture.
I do think the top teams are slowly showing themselves, but it’s too early to just ride teams every single week, while factoring in dicey spreads is always key.
Hopefully, this early look at week four NFL lines helps you figure out your bets – especially if you roll with my week four NFL picks!
The post Looking at the Early Betting Lines for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL Season appeared first on GamblingSites.com.
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