I’ve been slowly recovering with my sports upset picks lately, piecing together a few winning weeks recently. The beauty is that it’s been done largely in the dog days of summer, and with the NFL and NBA just around the corner, things should heat up in a hurry.
It’s rarely easy to nail underdog picks, but I’ve been in a groove lately. Last week saw me try to build on an improving 33-47-1 upset picks record with four new game predictions.
I pointed out going into last week that it’s not always just about nailing that straight-up underdog pick. Instead, simply getting an underdog price can bring you back easy money if you view a game correctly.
Let’s see how that worked out with a look back at last week’s upset picks before moving on to this week’s picks.
The one game that stood out all week to me was a Big 10 clash between Northwestern and Purdue.
The Boilermakers were a fine favorite at home, but Northwestern was the better team a year ago and still looked like they were going to be a tough out.
Northwestern responded with the win, and at a cool +130, they ended up returning nice value as road dogs. Here’s how everything else worked out last week.
Northwestern over Purdue+130
Redskins over Ravens+6.5, +101 
Athletics over Astros+173
Blue Bombers over Roughriders+3, -104
The Redskins offered nice value with a +6.5 point spread (+101 price) in week four of preseason play. I’ll hop on that every time during meaningless football action. Washington failed to beat the spread, though, losing by 10 points.
I also liked the Blue Bombers to keep it close with the Roughriders or get the win. They failed to deliver in either capacity.
A 2-2 record makes for a wash with regular sports betting, but since we get nice value back with my underdog picks, last week still wound up being a win.
Northwestern and Oakland brought back $103 in profit, which helped to lift my season upset picks mark to 35-49-1 and also netted some nice profit.
Profit is what it’s all about. No matter the bet or the number of upset picks, the end game is always to come out ahead. The aim is again to do just that as I dive into this week’s top upset picks.
The NFL is officially back on Thursday, so I can’t possibly ignore the value staring in the face of bettors.
I know the Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champions and are at home, but the Falcons could deliver on a pretty nice +120 price in this spot.
Atlanta was arguably the best team in the league two years ago, and despite a decline, they still made the playoffs last year. Once in, they fell to these very Eagles in a tight 15-10 contest.
Philly won’t have Carson Wentz or Alshon Jeffery on hand for their opener, so right off the bat, the Falcons have the talent advantage. Throw in a spotty preseason for Nick Foles, and it’s pretty easy to argue Atlanta taking this game straight up.
On Sunday, the NFL really returns. There is a slew of viable options on a big NFL betting slate, but my favorite by far remains the Cleveland Browns.
I know the Browns were a dreadful 0-16 a year ago and have won once in the past two years, but they feel really sneaky in this spot. There could be a dark cloud hanging over the Steelers, as star running back Le’Veon Bell’s contract issue has been a major distraction.
He no-showed at camp, and some are wondering if he’ll even play in week one. Beyond that, Ben Roethlisberger has a negative road history, and the Browns are big +195 home dogs.
Hue Jackson’s squad was already a fairly tough out at times in 2017, and they actually played the Steelers tightly in two contests last year. It’s going to be one heck of a story when the Browns go from 0-16 to 1-0, and I think they just might be able to do it.
While I’m excited to soak up some value with the first week of the 2018 NFL season arriving, that doesn’t mean I’ll ignore baseball betting upset picks that stand out. It also doesn’t mean I’ll go nuts with NFL underdog picks just for the sake of doing so.
This is an intense NL Central series, both because it’s two teams that don’t like each other and it also has huge repercussions for the division crown.
Chicago remains well ahead of the Brew Crew, but they certainly don’t want to drop games in this series. Every loss counts as a two-game move for the Brewers, who would jump up one game each time.
The Brewers also offer value at home, but they’re favored, and they’re not necessarily the better team. Chicago has the more reliable offense and happens to offer the better price. Considering the magnitude of this series, I’m rolling with the Cubs.
The A’s were kind to me last week. While a series win over the visiting New York Yankees won’t return a sick +173 price tag, backing Oakland at +100 in their home park feels like a steal, nonetheless.
These teams are neck and neck in the MLB standings at the moment, while both have the incentive to try to win with first place in their respective divisions within striking distance.
Both of these teams are rather dependent on the home run for their offense, but the Athletics are used to trying to get by without the long ball at home. Considering they’ve got a stout 41-28 here, I tend to favor them in this spot.
New York will be a fun team to back in one game for this series, but Oakland gets a pitching boost here, and the Yanks remain bogged down by injuries. Oakland feels like a nice bet at +100 to take what should be a pretty competitive series.
This gives you four more upset picks to work with this week. Remember, there is more than one way to find and play an underdog, and you don’t need to chase underdogs just for the sake of trying to obtain crazy upside.
Every season tends to be long, regardless of sport, so be sure to put the onus on taking on upset picks that have really strong arguments, rather than simply boasting elite moneylines.
As I’ve stated before, it’s not even just about the moneyline.
Value, in whatever form it is presented, can be exploited so try to stretch yourself out and look for run lines, spreads, totals, and all kinds of wagers that are beneficial to you in the way you view a game, but also rewarding.
Hopefully this all helps you win this week. Either way, thanks for reading, and enjoy the games!
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