The NFL isn’t necessarily decided by the midway point, but history suggests we often have a pretty good idea as to who will be standing last at the end of the year by now.
A year ago, the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots were very clearly two of the best teams in football.
The Pats getting to the Super Bowl wasn’t a lock, but they were at least favored to. The Eagles had an even tougher road with Carson Wentz going down, but they looked the part of a title threat, and they lived up to that.
In years past, the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers got off to crazy hot starts and never cooled until they got to the Super Bowl. We didn’t exactly see them coming before the season started, but once we got through the first half of the year, their title-game runs were no longer a surprise.
I’m afraid we’re in for a similar fate this year, and I’d put money down on Super Bowl 53 consisting of some combination of the Rams, Chiefs, Patriots, and Saints.
You can try to bet on Super Bowl 53 matchups that make the most sense for your money, but the combination is likely coming down to those four teams.
With that being the case, we’re rapidly losing betting value when it comes to the Super Bowl, and the same can be said for division winner bets and a lot of other NFL futures.
The only thing remaining pure is NFL player prop bets. That’s just an opinion, but the beauty here is that they’re very specific, and they’re also a ton of fun.
To get the ball rolling, let’s take a look at a bunch of fun NFL player props over at MyBookie.ag and see how you may want to bet.
This prop is set to run from week eight until week 16 over at MyBookie.ag, and it pits incumbent starting quarterback Blake Bortles against backup passer Cody Kessler.
Head coach Doug Marrone benched Bortles last week in an effort to ignite a spark for a struggling Jacksonville team, but he’s already gone back to Bortles. The question, of course, is if Bortles will get benched again and if that benching might stick in Kessler’s favor.
Here are the odds for said prop bet.
At this point, I still have to say Bortles starts more games. He’s presently Jacksonville’s best bet to turn this thing around, and what Kessler showed in relief wasn’t overly encouraging.
I can see an argument for someone else supplanting Bortles (maybe via trade?), but the Jaguars know what they have in Kessler, and it isn’t an upgrade over Bortles.
The value isn’t crazy, but Bortles is getting his job back for week eight, and he probably isn’t losing it to Kessler.
Bettors probably would have scoffed at this last year, but Carson Wentz suffered a knee injury in week 14 and gave way to an eventual Super Bowl MVP in Foles.
Needless to say, you never know what can happen over the next nine games. The odds are pretty tempting with Foles, especially given the various avenues.
The knee-jerk reaction is an easy “no,” but let’s consider the ways Foles can get back on the field as a starter this year: Wentz gets hurt, Wentz gets benched, the Eagles rest Wentz to close out the year, or Foles gets traded to a team that needs a quarterback upgrade.
I don’t like trying to predict injury, so I won’t go there. Wentz has 10 touchdowns against one pick on the year, so his play hasn’t been the issue for the Eagles. They also aren’t in a position at 3-4 to really rest their guys late in the year.
The only way Foles gets to start that way is if Philly is eliminated from playoff contention and they rest Wentz in the last game of the season. That’s still not that believable, as the NFC East is pretty wide open, and I think the Eagles will be in the running for a wild card spot.
A trade is still on the table for another week (October 30th), and a few teams (Miami and Jacksonville, to name two) could be interested in making a move.
All of this is possible but unlikely. Provided Wentz stays healthy, I doubt Foles gets to start this year.
The star Rams running back is having himself a season. He’s fresh off an amazing 2017 campaign where he scored 19 times (13 on the ground, 6 through the air). He did that in 15 games, and this year, he’s got 14 total scores through just seven.
Gurley hasn’t even played half the year, and he’s already approaching his production from a year ago.
That might not sound sustainable, but let’s consider that he is LA’s top red-zone threat. That’s a pretty big deal for a team that leads the league in red-zone scoring opportunities (5.3) per game.
Still, can Gurley convert enough of those opportunities to the point where he challenges LaDainian Tomlinson’s record of 31 total touchdowns? MyBookie doesn’t seem sure one way or another.
You’re looking at a fine price either way, albeit not a very profitable one. Obviously, the odds have to favor Gurley not making history, but the math actually adds up.
Assuming the Rams keep up their torrid pace of 5+ red-zone trips per game, it’s conceivable to imagine Gurley getting 1-2 shots at a rushing score every single week.
That isn’t flawed logic, either, as Gurley has multiple rushing scores in each of his last three games, and he’s accomplished that feat four times on the year. Gurley has also scored at least once in all seven games thus far.
The pace from this point on still has to be pretty nasty. Gurley literally needs 17 more scores to tie the mark and 18 to break it. If he can just punch it in the end zone once per game over the next nine contests, he’ll end the year with an amazing 23 total touchdowns but will fall short by quite a bit.
If he somehow averages two scores a game, he’ll blow the record out of the water with 35 total touchdowns.
I tend to think it’s going to be somewhere in the middle, but Gurley has been a monster, and he’s what makes the Rams go. Not only is he what makes them so good, but once he gets close, you just know that LA is going to make it a priority to get him this record.
The price is so tight, and Gurley has been so dominant that I see little reason to doubt him or the Rams in this regard.
T.J. Watt and J.J. Watt are two brothers in the NFL, and that alone is a bit of a rarity. That makes it even more impressive that they’re both elite defenders in the league and that they’re at the top of the league in the very difficult skill of sacking quarterbacks.
There’s no guarantee that either will lead the league in sacks, but MyBookie.ag doesn’t care about that (although that’s certainly a player prop bet I’d want to wager on). What they do care about, however, is this fun sack prop bet between two brosiffs.
The odds are actually pretty fun, as J.J. leads the way in sacks (7) and odds, while little brother T.J. offers better value and is one sack behind. Here’s how they stack up from a betting perspective.
Obviously, J.J. is the easy call for most people. He’s literally in the lead, and his Texans defense has looked better as a whole compared to T.J.’s Steelers.
The older Watt also has a history of crushing it in the sack department, as he’s topped at least 10.5 sacks four times and twice even registered 20+ sacks.
T.J. Watt has proven to be quite good at getting to the quarterback on the edge, but he had just seven sacks as a rookie. He’s obviously already set to blow that number out of the water, but I prefer J.J.’s talent and history in this bet.
The brotherly rivalry makes T.J.’s +110 price tempting, but I’ll roll with J.J. in this one.
The writing has actually been on the wall here for a while. Not only are the Broncos in a rebuilding stage at 3-4, but they even drafted wide receivers this offseason.
The 30-year-old Thomas is on his way out of town one way or another, as he enters a contract year in 2019. He’s also well aware that his time could be up in Denver, so it’s a little surprising to see the value MyBookie is offering here.
DT can still ball, but he isn’t a fit with the Broncos anymore based on necessity. Emmanuel Sanders is the more versatile veteran, while youngster Courtland Sutton is starting to make enough noise to garner more playing time.
Thomas can help a contending team if they pay the right price. Whether it’s the Packers, Seahawks, Eagles, or someone else, I do think he ultimately gets dealt.
Tucker infamously missed an extra point for the first time ever last week, and of course, it cost his Ravens a win. That was truly remarkable, and the guy’s face said it all.
Tucker is forever a social media legend. A GIF. A meme. He’s everything.
He truly could not believe what had just transpired, and pretty much all of Baltimore was right there with him. The big question, naturally, is if it will ever happen again.
I love this price, as Tucker broke the seal here in a sense and obviously with each successive kick will draw closer to his next point-after-touchdown gaffe.
This truly is one of the best kickers of all time we’re talking about here, but since the league pushed extra points back, they’ve gotten significantly trickier. This is also a season in which Mason Crosby missed five kicks in one game.
For the price, it’s worth it to just chase the upside and hope Tucker misses one more freebie. He certainly wouldn’t be alone, as 15 other teams have missed at least one PAT this year already. With nine regular-season games to go, I’ll roll the dice on Tucker missing once more.
This is more of a long-term prop, and it’s not so much about a player as it is a coach. I’d say that still qualifies, and this one has MyBookie pondering the future of Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett.
He’s long been debated as a potential firing candidate, as the Cowboys are relentlessly average, and he continues to have a job. Maybe he’s been given a mulligan for dealing with so many Tony Romo injuries and the transition from Romo to Dak Prescott.
Either way, Garrett has come under the microscope as of late due to conservative play calling, and if Dallas can’t right the ship (currently 3-4), it’s quite possible this is his last year in Dallas.
Here are his odds.
Obviously, team owner Jerry Jones loves Garrett, but at some point, he’s going to have to admit Garrett is responsible for too many losses. Considering Dallas is off to another slow start, anything less than a playoff appearance probably means he’s finally done.
There is too much value associated with a firing that absolutely should happen. The recent trade for Amari Cooper was a sign of desperation and probably won’t work out. When it fails, Garrett needs to go.
I won’t waste a ton of time here, as Mayfield is the face of the franchise in Cleveland. The only way this dude doesn’t start every game from now until the end of the year is if he gets hurt.
Here’s how MyBookie prices him.
Injury isn’t impossible here, as Mayfield isn’t the biggest guy out there, and the Browns are dead last in sacks allowed (4.4) per contest. That certainly puts Mayfield at risk, and an injury can’t be ruled out, but I don’t like to project injuries – even in the NFL.
Assuming he stays healthy, there’s little reason for Mayfield not to start the rest of the way.
The story is similar for Darnold, and New York has protected their franchise quarterback a lot better than Cleveland has. Darnold is actually a bigger person and looks capable of taking a beating.
Darnold is also the main man for the Jets, so it’d make no sense to see him get benched. He gives New York their best chance to win, after all.
Here are his odds.
The value isn’t really worth attacking, but Darnold is another guy that figures to see the field every week to close out the year. Barring a random injury, it’s not worth it to bet against him.
Lastly, there is a weird prop bet at MyBookie that wonders if Gordon (a known marijuana user) will conduct a touchdown celebration dance that has a connection with smoking weed.
Considering the Patriot Way is against touchdown celebrations and putting the individual ahead of the team, this would really be out of bounds.
Of course, those odds are tough to deny.
I see what MyBookie is doing here, but I’m not biting. This is really just a wager to avoid more than anything else.
If you really want to throw some money down on this, there’s only one way you should bet.
I love writing up NFL player prop bet posts because every time I look at new ones, it feels like the tip of the iceberg. For every wager you see, there are literally 5-10 others you could dream up.
If you’re going to offer wagers about Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, why not toss something in for Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Rosen as well?
If you’re talking about trading players like Demaryius Thomas, why not also talk about Le’Veon Bell and anyone else potentially on the trading block?
I’m not here to slam NFL betting sites for not offering every prop bet I covet, but the main point is that these types of wagers are a ton of fun, and the possibilities are endless.
There is not always amazing value, but I feel you can grind some wins out of a few of these and also aim high in a few other spots. Whatever you decide, hopefully I shed enough insight to make your process easier.
Good luck with your NFL betting, and thanks for reading!
The post NFL Player Prop Bets – 10 Picks to Follow in October 2018 appeared first on GamblingSites.com.
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