Thanks to some of the changes made by FIFA and UEFA for the international soccer breaks, we now can enjoy games pretty much every day for a week straight. This is the reason there are more matches from the UEFA Nations League this Saturday.
As always, this provides an opportunity to watch some soccer, but more importantly, find some exciting opportunities to make some money.
In this post, I will explore the games on October 13th and see if there is value up for grabs.
As always,I will be using the prices from our recommended online bookmakers for my picks.
Let’s take a look what the bookies have to say about this match from the UEFA Nations League.
I can’t help but start with one of the most iconic European rivalries in soccer history. There are some legendary matches between the Netherlands and Germany, including finals of World Cups and European Championships.
I would say that the motivation of both teams will be sky-high. On top of that, they have a lot to prove right now.
The Netherlands is in crisis and missed two big tournaments in a row, while Germany was soundly dumped by South Korea in the group stage of the World Cup.
Both teams are in the process of transition, and the start was rather decent. The Dutch were barely beaten by France in Paris in their Nations League opener, while Germany drew the world champions at home.
This leaves the door open for both teams for the next stage, so the Saturday match is crucial. Both Germany and the Netherlands must win to remain in contention, which explains the rather high line for the under/over goals market.
While I understand the logic behind the prices, I don’t completely agree with it. I think there are reasons to expect a tighter game, as you will see below.
As for the match result odds, I agree with the bookies that Germany is the slight favorite. Despite the home advantage, the Netherlands is currently way behind in terms of quality. And yet, I think the game should be close.
For now, let’s focus on both teams.
As a big fan of Dutch soccer, I was disappointed that the country missed both the World Cup in Russia and the Euros in France.
This is a team built around a couple of stars like Liverpool’s Virgil Van Dijk and Kevin Strootman, but the sheer number of players of the highest quality can’t compare with former Dutch teams. The good news is that the coach, Ronald Koeman, knows that.
He is trying to install a more realistic approach that relies mostly on hard work and defensive discipline. These are not the traits that the Dutch are famous for, but the desperate times require the desperate measures.
The first signs of Koeman’s reign are rather positive. The team had some decent games against the likes of France, Italy, and Peru. The defense, led by Van Dijk, looks strong and doesn’t allow many chances.
At the same time, players like Quincy Promes, Georginio Wijnaldum, and Memphis Depay all can hit any team on the counter. They have the speed and the technical ability required for Koeman’s tactics to work.
I don’t think that the Dutch are on the same level as the best countries in Europe, but the new approach should give them a chance to return to the biggest stage and possibly have a good run sooner or later.
The summer was tough for Germany, as the team was one of the favorites in the World Cup but failed to defend the trophy. Not only that, but the Germans were knocked out in the group stages for the first time in its history.
Some of the problems were related to the team selection of coach Joachim Low, who decided to leave some young guns like Leroy Sane out. Bold moves like this pay off sometimes, but this wasn’t the case. Low had to face a lot of scrutiny for his decision, but the scandals after the World Cup didn’t end there.
There was a racism row surrounding Mesut Ozil, and the former number 10 decided to retire from international soccer.
For the game against the Netherlands, Germany will be without Ilkay Gundogan, Marco Reus, Antonio Rudiger, and a couple of other players because of injuries.
Still, Die Mannschaft is full of talent, so this shouldn’t be that big of a deal. I think that the biggest challenge in front of Low would be to build new partnerships. For years, the core of the team was the same, and it now has to change.
The good news is that the quality of the rising stars of German soccer provides the coach with a lot of potential. I feel that it’s only a matter of time before the new squad clicks and Germany becomes one of the dominant forces in soccer once again.
In the long run, Germany should be the stronger side, but I’m not that sure if that’s the case when it comes to this particular match. It seems as if the transitional period of the Dutch is a couple of steps ahead, so they are the more organized team.
At the same time, the potential of Germany is much higher, so I can’t find an option to bet on the match result markets here.
My focus will be on the under/over goals. While the desire and the need to win of both teams shouldn’t be underestimated, a deeper look at their strong and weak sides suggest that we could see a limited number of goals.
Ronald Koeman has managed to teach the Dutch to defend properly, while Low is working hard to rediscover the offensive cohesion in the German squad.
This won’t be easy against a side that will probably defend deep. This is why the price of 1.90 offered by BetOnline for under 2.75 goals seems like the obvious choice.
I expect a tight game, so my prediction for the correct score would be a 1-1 draw.
Here are the main betting markets you can find for this UEFA Nations League match.
Slovenia is in crisis, as the country has lost its first two games of the group against Bulgaria and Cyprus. The side will now have to face the favorite Norway, and I expect more of the same. The Scandinavian country will have to win this one after losing against Bulgaria.
I’ve watched the highlights of this match, and I’m not exactly sure how Norway lost. The side barely let the opponent create any chances, while there were plenty of clear-cut opportunities.
In the end, the lack of efficiency was the reason why Norway lost against Bulgaria.
However, the performance was more than enough to grant the team the status of a favorite against Slovenia, hence the lower odds.
As for the goals marker, most matches in this group are rather tight, so I can understand why the bookies expect around two goals in total.
Let’s see if the deeper analysis will show something interesting.
I already shared my opinion on the game against Bulgaria, but it was more of the same against Cyprus, despite the win. Norway had a bunch of chances to score but missed many of them.
The country will have to improve in terms of composure, but everything else is looking solid. They’ve conceded only once so far and are defending well.
I expect the country to finish in the first position, but the match against Slovenia will be quite important for that to happen.
The start of the UEFA Nation League has been abysmal for Slovenia. The side lost its first home game against a weak Bulgarian team and then was beaten again by Cyprus.
In both games, Slovenia didn’t deserve to get anything.
The side is allowing too many goals, while the attack is not working, either. Slovenia has scored only once so far, and against weaker defensive teams than Norway.
Based on the performance so far and the ambitions of both teams, I feel that Norway is the overwhelming favorite to win this match.
The odds of 1.68 might seem a bit short on the first glance, but they actually contain solid value, in my opinion.
I think that Norway should be able to keep a clean sheet and create plenty of chances. This is the reason why I could easily see a 2-0 win for the hosts.
I can’t wait to watch the game between the Netherlands and Germany. Both teams have a lot of questions to answer at this point, so this match will show us the direction of each of them for the forthcoming future.
Good luck!
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