The favorites had the upper hand again this past week. That was certainly the case in the MLB playoffs when the Dodgers and Red Sox both pushed their way through championship series they were largely favored to win.
The chalk seemed to get it done in pro football, too. Nine NFL teams went into week seven as favorites and emerged victorious, while several of them did so in impressive fashion.
While the big dogs barked the loudest this past week, that doesn’t mean there wasn’t a little room for some elite betting value.
If you stretch your neck long enough, you can always catch a few crumbs being knocked off the table.
Let’s recap last week’s upset pick bids and see how things unfolded before getting into this week’s upset picks.
I dabbled in the NFL with two upset picks and whiffed on both. Depending on the week, I’ll hand out two NFL underdog picks or possibly many more.
I also like to write about the early NFL odds each week. You can check out the early week 8 NFL betting lines to get a head start on regular pro football picks.
Week seven really wasn’t the week to chase underdogs in pro football, and it was easy to see that with a quick 0-2 mark in that betting genre.
Arizona never came close at home, but at least Dallas had a chance to force overtime late in a battle with the Redskins in DC. Here’s a quick look at all of my picks from last week.
Dallas Cowboys over Washington Redskins+105
Arizona Cardinals over Denver Broncos+117
Boston Red Sox over Houston Astros+122 
Denver Nuggets over Los Angeles Clippers-110
The other two upset picks I chased resided in baseball and basketball via the Red Sox and Nuggets.
Denver actually saw their lines move to the point where they eventually were not the underdog, but when I listed them, they were a slight dog on the road.
Both teams got wins and returned mild value. The returns weren’t amazing, but I’ll take the 2-2 record (now 43-65-2 on the year) and move along into another week of chasing upset picks. Let’s get to it.
Game one of the 2018 World Series touches down in Boston tonight, and bettors won’t want to miss it.
The easy bet is to just back the Red Sox here. They had more wins than anyone in 2018, they’re starting Chris Sale, and their offense is as deadly as anyone’s.
Then again, Sale has to battle Clayton Kershaw to get the win in this spot, and the Dodgers aren’t exactly bad offensively themselves.
LA won’t have the rust factor working against them, as they played two games more recently than Boston, and the most recent one was a clutch game seven win just to get here.
The Dodgers also have the narrative backing them here, as they have unfinished business after losing the MLB title series in seven games a year ago.
Whether or not the Dodgers strike first and take a 1-0 lead remains to be seen, but they’re a pretty nice price for a loaded team in a huge game. I’ll soak up that value without any second-guessing.
Normally, I wouldn’t bet against the Nuggets at home, but I think this game is a little trappy for them.
They’re new to dominance, but right now, they are undefeated at a perfect 3-0 and are even fresh off a clutch win over the defending champion Warriors.
This has the early makings of a playoff team, and Denver has also historically done a great job on their home floor.
All of that is true, but everyone loses eventually, and they’re facing a surprise Kings squad that is averaging 125 points per game and is actually 2-1 through three games.
I’m not here to suggest the Kings are better or that they’re suddenly a playoff team, but Sacramento does have a good amount of talent, and they can put up points.
The Kings aren’t easy to trust on the road, but they rank 2nd in pace and 4th in offensive efficiency.
If the Kings can force this into a run-and-gun game, it isn’t impossible for them to return insane value in this spot.
The Panthers are a very weird underdog going into week eight.
Not only are they fresh off of an intense win (came back from a 17-0 hole), but they’re a solid 4-2 and get a home game against a Ravens team that pretty much lost the same way Carolina just won.
That, and the Panthers are 3-0 in front of their home crowd thus far and offer a similarly balanced offense and defense.
Baltimore wants to run the ball and defend, but they’re going into a hostile environment and attempting to control the clock against a team that thrives in the same exact game strategy.
The Panthers might be the better team at this point, but regardless of if you believe that, you have to convince yourself they’re not a bargain at +110 at home in this matchup. I personally can’t talk myself out of this one.
Lastly, we have the well-rested Green Bay Packers heading to LA to try to become the first team to beat the mighty Rams (7-0) this year.
I’ll start by saying that the Rams really are as good as they look, and there’s little doubt that they’re the superior team in this matchup.
Green Bay has also been less than inspiring (0-2) on the road this year, and they struggled to get wins over the Bears and 49ers on their own field.
This won’t be an easy one, but if for no other reason, I find it impossible to ignore an Aaron Rodgers-led team at an absurd +340 price tag.
Are the Packers going to completely stifle Jared Goff and Todd Gurley? No, but if their offense can click and put up 30+ points, I think they have a chance to win a crazy shootout.
LA has been dominant in 2018, but they’ve had several close games. If the ball bounces in Green Bay’s favor at the right time, it’s not impossible for them to execute and steal a big win.
The other thing is that Green Bay might not have a choice but to accomplish the impossible. The Packers are just 3-2-1 after escaping the so-called “easy” part of their schedule. They either need to luck into some big wins or get better in a hurry.
One or the other could happen this week, and at +340, I really don’t mind rolling the dice on Aaron Rodgers.
I’m aiming my sights a bit higher this week. I do have two upset calls that I’d deem fairly safe in Carolina (+110) and Los Angeles (+130).
That isn’t to say they’re locks, but their games are still being called pretty close to the chest, so you know that Vegas isn’t favoring one over the other in a gross manner.
The Kings and Packers, however, are potential reaches that could get me into trouble.
I like those picks, however, as there is some logic to them, and the upside is very easy to see.
Pick your spots as you see fit, and by all means, be sure to keep hunting for the right wagers at the price you prefer.
These prices come from SportsBetting.ag, but they’re not the only games to target, and you might find these games priced better elsewhere if you keep looking throughout the week.
Whatever you decide, I hope I help you win in some manner this week. Enjoy the games, and good luck with your bets!
The post This Week’s Upset Picks for Bettors – Picks for 10/23 – 10/28 appeared first on GamblingSites.com.
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