The race for the 2018 NFL MVP is a fluid one.
Before the season started, it looked to be a two-man race between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers to be this year’s most valuable player.
If you wanted to toss Todd Gurley or Antonio Brown’s hat into the ring, nobody would bat an eye. Not many others were considered as realistic contenders, though.
A week or two in, the rise of Patrick Mahomes had taken the league over. Five weeks deep, his hold hasn’t weakened, as most football betting sites list him as the clear betting favorite.
Let’s take a look at what this means for NFL bettors.
The question, of course, is if Mahomes is the easy pick or if someone else makes more sense. There’s a lot of season left, so it’s definitely a question bettors want to (and need to) ask themselves.
Here’s a look at the latest 2018 NFL MVP odds, courtesy of SportsBetting.ag.
One thing I always like to do in reference to scouring NFL odds is point out any notable options that aren’t provided.
The Any/Field wager is one that’s absent here that I usually like to see, while it wouldn’t be a bad thing if guys like Kareem Hunt, Adam Thielen, J.J. Watt, DeAndre Hopkins, and maybe Andrew Luck were included in the latest 2018 NFL MVP odds.
Perhaps those guys are available for this prop bet on other sites. I’m not saying they’re strong contenders, but depending on their price tags, I’d at least lend them a cursory glance.
Overall, SportsBetting.ag gets it pretty right here. Mahomes leads the NFL in touchdown passes and has guided an explosive Chiefs offense to an undefeated 5-0 start at the time of this writing.
There are still 11 games to be played, but if he stays the course, he makes sense as the favorite. My job here is to point out a few viable options that could keep that from happening.
Here are my favorite bets at this point.
He only ranks second in terms of 2018 NFL MVP odds, and that’s how it should be. We probably would have talked about another uber-efficient season out of Brees last year had it not been for the Minnesota Miracle.
Brees is back to his old elite tricks in 2018, as the near-40-year-old is blowing by defenses en route to leading the Saints to an impressive 4-1 start. Brees is just three touchdowns behind Mahomes for the NFL lead and ranks fourth in passing yardage.
It’s a decent bet that Brees will lead the league in most passing categories by the end of the year, while nobody can top his nasty completion rate (77%!).
To top it off, Brees is breaking records and doing all of this at an old age for a quarterback. He already broke the career passing yardage mark, and while he’ll only be adding to that new record, he’s also going to join the 500+ touchdown club.
This feels like the Year of Mahomes, but it actually may wind up being the Year of Brees. Bettors need to consider soaking up the extra betting value and banking on Brees.
Of course, Goff’s Rams are one step ahead of the Saints, and it’s arguable his transformation in Sean McVay’s offensive system over the past two years has been more impressive than anything else.
Goff benefits from a brilliant system and a loaded supporting cast, but he’s also still getting the job done. He currently is tied for third in passing scores and tops the league in passing yardage, while only Brees ranks higher in completion percentage (72%).
This is a quarterback-driven league and a quarterback-dominated award. Big numbers and team success weigh heavily on the outcome, and Goff at +750 is quickly starting to feel like highway robbery for bettors.
Then again, it doesn’t have to be a quarterback that wins NFL MVP. That position almost always wins, but anytime there is a truly special season from another position, I think they’re going to be worth a look and at least have a shot.
Gurley could have easily been named MVP last year, and nobody would have scoffed at that. This year, he’s shaping up to be an even better option, as he’s cruising with the second-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns in the league through just five games.
The pace might not be sustainable, but as things stand, Gurley is looking at a final line of almost 29 total touchdowns and over 2,000 total yards.
Again, I’m not sure this current pace is going to last, but Gurley is off to an amazing start, and challenging for 2,000+ total yards and almost 30 scores would absolutely put him in the mix.
Gurley is the real MVP on this team for me. And looking at how great LA is right now, he just might be the real MVP of the league as well.
We haven’t gotten a defensive NFL MVP winner since the days of Lawrence Taylor, but the dramatic impact Mack has had on the Bears – morphing them from a good defense into an elite one – can’t be overstated.
Mack is on a torrid pace with five sacks in just four games, setting him up for a 20+ sack season if he can keep getting to the quarterback with such ease. His presence is felt more than that, too, as Mack has forced four fumbles and contributed a pick-six.
Mack has almost single-handedly turned the Bears into a Super Bowl threat, and if that remains a thing moving forward, he’s absolutely in the conversation for league MVP.
Just because it doesn’t happen often does not mean it can’t.
The reality is that special defensive seasons are simply rare. If Mack can keep up this eye-popping pace and if Chicago sticks as a legit playoff threat, you could look back on this sweet +2500 price tag with envy.
Kamara saw his amazing role sliced to bits in week five thanks to the return of fellow running back Mark Ingram, but the pace he’s set for 2018 already is astonishing.
His volume won’t be like we saw it through the first four weeks, but the Saints also need him too much to ice him out like they did last week.
Kamara has been about as impressive, as he’s racked up six total scores, 38 receptions, and over 600 total yards. This is another line that probably isn’t sustainable at its current rate, but it’s still one we should freely marvel over.
Kamara still has so much upside due to his versatile skill-set, and if he somehow did keep this ratio going, he could be looking at 20+ touchdowns and over 2,000 all-purpose yards.
I think he’s a much tougher bet than everyone else here, simply because Brees and Ingram are just as valuable going forward. I don’t mind considering him at this fat +2500 price, however.
I love what Mahomes is doing, but I don’t think he’s winning league MVP. He’s regressed slightly at least statistically over his last two games, and it’s just going to get harder and harder for a guy who is basically a rookie still.
The Chiefs look pretty awesome, and he’s going to have fantastic numbers when it’s all said and done, but the competition is fierce up top.
All of the options I pointed out are worth a look, and it’s pretty crazy when I’m not even seriously vouching for Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and a few others. I still think this is a fairly wide-open race, but if you want value and upside, the two bets that make the most sense are Brees at +350 and Gurley at +850.
Gurley could be headed for a historic season, and the Rams might be in trouble without him. That being said, Brees is doing amazing things at age 39, and he has the Saints looking like the top threat to Los Angeles these days.
I have my eye on Mack if he can keep this sack pace going, but this award almost always goes to a quarterback. The smart money sticks with that position, and based on sustainability, price, and upside, I think Brees has pulled into the lead. It’s actually a little shocking that he offers so much value at the moment.
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